Pakistan received total foreign security assistance of $303 million for equipment and $223 million non-military assistance from the US in 2017, an amount that is unlikely to have any immediate impact though there may be serious ramifications in the long term.
Sources told Business Recorder that from fiscal year 2002 to 2017 Pakistan was reimbursed to the tune of $14.573 billion under the coalition support fund (CSF) and, in addition, received $8.259 billion security related assistance. Economic assistance is estimated at $11.095 billion during 15 years. Total US assistance has been around $ 33.927 billion - $ 3.9 billion in excess of the amount tweeted by President Trump.
In 2018, Pakistan was projected to receive $255 million under foreign military assistance which has been suspended by the US for allegedly providing safe havens to the Haqqani network. Sources in the Finance Ministry told Business Recorder that multilateral institutions including the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank (WB) have been extending project and programme assistance to Pakistan post 9/11 however reports indicate that some assistance was due to US support for Pakistan. If that support is withdrawn, or worse the US begins to oppose assistance to Pakistan, then approval by the boards of multilaterals may be delayed or withheld.
The Ministry officials further pointed out that so far the Trump administration has not withdrawn project/economic assistance to Pakistan and in the event that it decides to do so Pakistan's external account may face further widening.
Ashfaque Hassan Khan, former Advisor to Finance Ministry, said that from 2002 to 2016, US assistance on average to Pakistan was around $650 million and most of it was utilized through its own agency USAID as well as NGOs and INGOs. He said the suspension of even $650 million, which is less than one percent of the GDP, will not have great impact on the country. However, the real problem for the country will be if US being a superpower uses leverage on multilaterals against Pakistan. He said that Pakistan heavily relies on the WB, ADB and the IMF support for projects, budgetary support and balance of payment support.
Military spokesperson Major-General Asif Ghafoor told Business Recorder that the suspension of US assistance will only impact on bilateral security arrangements and efforts for peace in the region: "Pakistan has been fighting against terrorists for peace and not for money, Pakistan never fought for money. The Pakistan Army has indiscriminately targeted terrorists, including the Haqqani network at heavy cost of blood and treasure. Pakistan shall continue its sincere efforts in the best interest of Pakistan and peace."
Hassan Askari, a defence and foreign affairs analyst, told Business Recorder that the suspension of military assistance to Pakistan would have no direct and immediate consequences on ongoing operation against militancy and terrorism. However, the country would require new equipment for up-gradation for counter terrorism as well as training security personnel as per the modern day requirements. In such a situation the country may face difficulties by end 2018 if new avenues are not explored, Askari warned.
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