Although the present unrest in Iran is leaderless and focused more on provincial towns, and with the small protests only sporadic, it seems to be more dangerous than the massive protests of 2009. The protests over inflation and economic corruption, which began in Mashhad on Thursday, have spread to other cities, resulting in the deaths of at least 21 people; an estimated 400 people were arrested, and those arrested face the prospects of severe punishments, including the death sentence. The principal reason behind the current protests appears to be economic, as the government of President Hasan Rouhani has failed to bring about any meaningful change on the country's economic landscape, although it has succeeded in cutting a nuclear deal with the West. A cursory look at key socio-economic data carried by Business Recorder recently shows that unemployment in the Islamic Republic is quite high (12.5 percent) in the entire population; it is as high as nearly 27 percent in the population group of people between 15 and 24 years. Constant high increases in daily use items, particularly those related to food, seem to have greatly contributed to unrest in Iran. The government's deployment of whatever resources it can in the Middle East war theatre profoundly restricting its ability to provide subsidies to people is a cause of growing popular resentment in Iran.
In his first public comment on Tuesday since the protests began, Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has blamed "Iran's enemies" the protests. Without naming any country, he has said the enemies of Iran in recent days have utilized various means, including money, weapons, politics and intelligence apparatuses to create problems for the Islamic system. Although the Supreme Leader has hinted at identification of the "enemies" in due course, the secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, Ali Shamkhani, has named the Saudi government and its allies as the forces behind the new unrest in Iran, accusing the kingdom, as well as the US and Britain of waging a proxy war against Iran through Twitter and other social media websites. "Based on our analyses," he said, "around 27 percent of the new hashtags against Iran are generated by the Saudi government." He believes that the protests will be over in a few days, and "there is no reason to worry at all." Tehran has also reacted strongly to US President Donald Trump's Twitter attack, saying should focus on "homeless and hungry people" in his own country, rather than insulting Iranians. The overt meddling of the US in the internal affairs of a sovereign country recalls the US response to pro-reforms protests of 2009. The clerics used "celebrations" in the White House as the principal reason to discredit the otherwise indigenous and legitimate protests. The present incumbent in the White House appears to be unmindful of the consequences of his strategy in relation to the present situation in Iran. He ought to know that his Tweets and other provocations will ultimately serve the interests of the government in Iran, not the protesters. His efforts at undermining the legitimacy of the current protests in Iran could very well boomerang on his own country in some way.
In any case, the Iranian government is confident that the situation will become normal anytime soon, as it will manage to deal with the present challenge: it has deployed the fearsome Revolutionary Guards to quell the protests. But it seems to have purposefully avoided mention of a key fact related to the current protests: not only are the protesters demanding removal of the government, some of them are also calling for the return of the monarchy. In a nutshell, the situation gives birth to a profound question: Do the protest suggest that in most Iranians there is some Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeni, and some Reza Shah Pahlavi, too?
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