Quiet diplomacy

The US has reverted to quiet diplomacy to prevent a complete breakdown of the increasingly dysfunctional relationship with Pakistan. Lisa Curtis, Senior Director for South and Central Asia at the National Security Council, returned to Islamabad for discussions with the Pakistan Foreign Office represented by Foreign Secretary Tehmina Janjua. While it makes sense that the effort should be conducted away from the glare of publicity, the choice of the US envoy could raise a few eyebrows. Curtis is well known as a trenchant critic of Pakistan's policy vis-à-vis Afghanistan even before she assumed her present responsibility. Nevertheless, her current visit is a follow-up to her visit on October 12, 2017 when she met Janjua and CoAS General Qamar Javed Bajwa. That interaction yielded an agreement for both sides to continue their bilateral engagement at all levels and reinvigorate the relationship to achieve the objective of defeating terrorism. This time round, not even that kind of general statement has followed the interaction with Janjua and her team, not the least, reports claim, because of Pakistan's resentment at the role played by Washington in pushing Pakistan onto the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) grey list. Although the US pushed for Pakistan to be listed in an unprecedented move after the initial round of discussion at the FATF did not mention Pakistan, it must be admitted that Pakistan's diplomacy there was off the mark. China, Turkey and Saudi Arabia initially supported Pakistan's case but reports say after Foreign Minister Khawaja Asif prematurely broke the news that Pakistan had been granted a three-month reprieve to get its counter-illicit financing of terrorism regime in order, Pakistan lost the support of China and Saudi Arabia and Turkey's continued support could not prevent Pakistan being returned onto the FATF grey list after it had been taken off it in 2015. As it turned out, the steps Pakistan took to prevent this listing on the eve of the FATF conference such as taking over Jamaat ud Dawa (JuD) and its welfare front Falah-i-Insaniat's assets proved unable to convince the US and its western allies about its sincerity. That is because such last minute steps were regarded as cosmetic and not necessarily permanent, ie, reversible once the heat was off. It may be recalled that JuD is accused of masterminding the Mumbai attacks and is on the UN's terrorism list. Meantime reports also speak of the continuing dialogue between the Pentagon and GHQ, represented by Centcom Commander General Joseph Votel and CoAS General Qamar Javed Bajwa. This not only acts as a parallel conduit for exchange, it reflects the special and long-standing relationship between the military entities of the two countries, informed not just by irritations over Afghanistan but leavened by the US's desire to keep one of the Muslim world's largest and arguably most battle hardened armies in the region on its side.
It is time to revisit our narrative about having wiped out all terrorists from our soil, denial of any safe havens here for the Afghan Taliban and Haqqani Network, and victimhood at the hands of terrorists. This narrative's sell-buy date seems to have run its course. It may persuade some in our domestic audience but by now finds little or no traction with the international community. Being placed on FATF's grey list is not the end of the matter. Pakistan has now to present a plan to satisfy FATF regarding beefing up its anti-terrorism financing regime. If we fail to satisfy FATF, Pakistan could well end up on the organisation's black list. The brave words of Miftah Ismail, our current virtual finance minister, regarding no effect on our economy notwithstanding, such a development could make finding the finance to plug Pakistan's looming budget and external deficits that much harder and costlier. That is not an outcome our economy can afford in its still precarious state. It is in Pakistan's own best interests to now abandon the less than credible narrative we have been spinning and urgently review our policies vis-à-vis terrorism and proxies before the threatened financial crunch is upon us.