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The Indian Armed Forces Joint Doctrine-2017 explicitly acknowledges the use of "surgical strikes" as a formal part of India's retaliatory toolkit and validates the existence of India's Cold Start Doctrine. This was shared by the speakers at a panel discussion on "Indian Armed Forces Joint Doctrine-2017: A Critical Appraisal" organized by Islamabad Policy Research Institute (IPRI) here on Wednesday.
Speaking on the occasion, former ambassador Abdul Basit, President of IPRI, said that despite grave importance of reviewing the joint doctrine of Indian Armed Forces (JDIAF), not much attention has been given to the subject in Pakistan. He said that given the recent debates on potential shifts in Indian nuclear strategy, the presentation of India's nuclear strategy in the doctrine is alarming since it has opted to use the terms "credible deterrence" instead of "credible minimum deterrence."
The ambassador pointed out that as a reflection of India's future political and military ambitions, the doctrine will have long-term implications for Pakistan's threat perceptions and force posturing and calls for serious contemplation by the government. Air Commodore Khalid Banuri (retd) highlighted that the doctrine's focus on determining and/or preventing conflict through a process of credible deterrence, coercive diplomacy and punitive destruction, disruption and constraint is alarming.
He said that the document's language is highly ambiguous and posits more gaps especially in the absence of an autonomous office of Indian Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff. Banuri said that this doctrine should be viewed in the broader context of the wave of ultra-nationalism that is sweeping the globe and is being spearheaded by Modi in South Asia.
He also said that Pakistan needs to be wary that over the years, there has been a changing mood in New Delhi vis-à-vis the issue of 'No First Use' given statements made by key Indian politicians, strategists and academics like Vipin Narang. Assistant Professor Department of Defense and Strategic Studies, Quaid-i-Azam University, Salma Malik said that the new doctrine has had received mixed reactions in India since many view it as an ambiguous document that has more unanswered questions and obvious incongruities.
She said that the document leaves no confusion regarding India's malicious designs - a country which was the world's largest importer of arms between 2012 and 2016 and has the world's second largest military force. Salma pointed out that in the last four years, India's imports were far greater than those of both China and Pakistan. However, she also pointed out that India may soon change this role in the global arms industry by transforming itself into a leading arms exporting nation as well given its focus on indigenous defense production. She said that Pakistan needs to put all its efforts in strengthening its economy and governance mechanisms since without these pre-requisites; it will be faced with greater as well as more insurmountable challenges in the coming years.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2018

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