Crop conditions for drought-battered corn and soyabeans in Argentina fell further this week, and ratings among the top three provinces are now on average about 23 percentage points lower than a month ago. The poor conditions prompted the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange to slash the country's soya crop on Thursday to 44 million tonnes from its previous estimate of 47 million but maintained corn at 37 million tonnes.
About 57.5 million tonnes of soyabeans were harvested a year ago along with roughly 40 million tonnes of corn. Both crops featured strong yields amid favourable weather. The last two times that Argentina yields came up short due to bad weather were in 2012 and 2013. In 2012, corn and soyabean yields plunged just over 20 percent below the long-term trend. Better results were observed in 2013, but both crops had yield losses in excess of 10 percent.
In the top corn province of Cordoba, some 60 percent of the planted area is considered in good or very good condition as of March 1, down 24 points from a month ago. About 64 percent of the province's soyabeans are rated good or excellent, down 23 points.
The actual ratings in Cordoba could potentially be even lower as there was no reported data from the region of San Francisco this week, so last week's ratings were assumed instead in the calculations. In top soyabean grower Buenos Aires, some 64 percent of the crop is in good or very good state, down 14 points from a month ago. About two-thirds of the area planted to corn carries the same ratings, down 18 points.
Santa Fe does not produce as much corn and soyabeans as Cordoba or Buenos Aires, but the conditions have deteriorated most severely there. As of March 1, only 44 percent of the soyabean area was in good or very good shape, down 37 points since February 1. Corn was just 42 percent good or very good, down 34 points. In some of the provinces, corn and soyabean ratings are approaching 2012 levels. Ratings in all three provinces for both crops are worse than in 2013. There is still about a month to go before actual harvest results will begin to surface. On average over the past five years, the Argentine soyabean harvest reaches 20 percent completion around April 14, and corn reaches the same mark around April 9.
In the near term, rain will continue to avoid the Argentine Pampas as Thursday's midday model runs extended the dry pattern through the first week of March. There is a chance for some showers in about nine days, but the crops are starting to run out of time for disaster-averting rainfall.
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