The International Grains Council (IGC) on Thursday forecast that global grain stocks would fall in 2018/19, with the bulk of the decline seen in corn (maize). "Initial projections for grains supply and demand in 2018/19 indicate a tighter outlook," the inter-governmental body said in a monthly report, which included its first full set of projections for next season.
"A modest fall in production is anticipated (mainly wheat), but with a smaller old crop carry-in, overall availabilities of grains will be down to a three-season low," it said. The IGC said total grain stocks would fall by 46 million tonnes to 560 million, including a 42 million tonne drawdown in corn to 265 million tonnes, while wheat inventories were seen declining by 3 million tonnes to 253 million tonnes.
Total grains production in 2018/19 was projected to fall marginally to 2.087 billion tones, down 0.2 percent from the prior season, with consumption up 1.1 percent to 2.134 billion. Global wheat production was forecast to fall by 17 million tonnes to 741 million, with the largest decline seen in Russia (74.5 million tonnes vs 84.9 million).
Corn production was seen rising by 7 million tonnes to 1.052 billion tonnes, boosted by an expected rebound in Argentina to 48.3 million tonnes, up from this season's drought-hit crop of 40.0 million. Global soybean production was also seen rising in 2018/19 to a new record high of 354 million tonnes. The IGC cut its forecast for 2017/18 global soybean production by 6 million tonnes to 341 million tonnes "reflecting worsening conditions in Argentina."
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