Aleksandr Pushkin's closing line narod bezmolvstvuet (the people are silent) in Boris Godunov, a closet play, doesn't apply to the Russian elections because President Vladimir Putin has stormed to a landside election win. It is, however, a fact that the entire Josef Stalin era was characterized by a reality that this Russian poet, novelist and playwright of 19th century had summarized in one line. It is also a grim reality that Putin, who has become the longest serving Russian leader after Josef Stalin, is perhaps the most ardent admirer of the successor to Vladimir Lenin in post-Soviet era; the major difference between a Saint Petersburgian Putin and a Georgian Stalin is that both are products of different times. Stalin ruled the Soviet Union from 1929 to 1953. Their approach to both internal and external issues, however, could be described as near similar, if not cent percent identical. While Stalin successfully protected and preserved the Soviet Union by halting Hitler's juggernaut at Stalingrad in the Second World War, Putin has been able to jealously guard all assets that the Soviet Union bequeathed to the Russian Federation following its disintegration in 1991. That Putin is vastly different form his predecessor, Boris Yeltsin, is also a fact. His successful handling of the Chechnya crisis and strong resistance to Nato expansion, for example, make him more popular than his predecessor. Not only does his country challenge the US and its western allies in Europe in an effective and meaningful manner, it also maintains the competitive upper hand in the Middle East theatre where the US is seeking to regain its influence.
In Russia's elections a week ago, hundreds of irregularities reported by monitoring group Golos included stuffed ballot boxes, non-grant of permission to observers to visit certain polling stations, arrival of people in buses amid suspicion of forced voting and obstruction of webcams at polling stations by balloons and other obstacles. Putin won 76 percent of the vote, getting another six years in power as the relations with the West plunge to new Cold War lows. Putin's victory was expected but it was highly controversial nevertheless. The election results, however, clearly show that the West has in fact helped the Russian strongman win: the anger and rage of UK authorities in relation to the nerve gas controversy was a development that seems to have immensely worked in favour of Putin's electoral prospects. It is true that Russia was upset when Poland and two other Visegrad group countries (Hungary and the Czech Republic) joined Nato in 1999, and became highly belligerent when Slovakia and the Baltic states became part of the club in 2004. Putin has therefore often posed some highly legitimate questions to the West: Why up the ante after the end of the Cold War? Why does the West need a military alliance when the Soviet Union has imploded into 15 independent and sovereign states?
The simmering Syria conundrum still poses some tough challenges to Putin's statesmanship. But Russia's state of the economy which has been badly hit by protracted lower oil prices constitutes the most profound challenge to Putin's leadership. Its growth forecasts have been capped below targets set by the Kremlin. The most profound issue for Putin is Russia's demography. Russia, the world's largest country, has a population of less than 147 million, much lower than even Pakistan's. The declining birth rates have led to causing serious shortages of skilled and unskilled labour. It is therefore a fact that today's Russia is meeting its labour requirement largely through the labour imports from its near abroad or the states that previously constituted the Soviet Union. The retirement age in Russia is among the lowest in the world - 55 for women and 60 for men. While state pensions are very low, with the demographic decline the system still represents a growing burden for the federal budget which is heavily dependent on oil and gas revenues. According to global independent economists, Russia needs to create a favourable competitive environment before it reaches out to prospective foreign investors. It is therefore plausibly argued that the Kremlin has not retaliated to the fresh US sanctions because it doesn't want to discourage foreign investment. The current state of Russia's economy does offer an opportunity to Pakistan as well. Not only can Pakistan make a successful investment pitch for its oil and gas and steel sectors, it can also freely explore the possibilities of increased state of art arms and armament purchases in the Russian market.
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