The severe water shortage in the country is projected to negatively impact on major kharif crops, cotton, rice and maize, which would make agriculture growth rate target of 3.8 percent for 2018-19 unachievable.
Ministry of National Food Security & Research officials told Business Recorder that the estimated water shortage is 47 percent for Kharif season, which lasts from April to October Cotton sowing remains 40 percent lower in the ongoing season (began in April and end by June 30) compared to the same period of last year, mainly because of a severe water shortage and delay in harvest of wheat.
The government has set 14.37 million bales of cotton production target from an area of 7.3 million acres for 2018-19, but due to shortfall in sowing, officials are pessimistic about achievement of the production target. The country missed cotton production target of 14.04 million bales as well as revised target of 12.6 million bales set for 2017-18 by around 7 percent as production was recorded at 11.5 million bales.
Another major Kharif crop is rice and if water supply does not improve by sowing which starts in July, output will be affected and resultantly the production target of 7.2 million tons is unlikely to be achieved. Rice is an important food as well as cash crop. After wheat, it is the second main staple food crop and second major exportable commodity, contributing 3.1 percent of value added in agriculture and 0.6 percent to GDP.
Maize is the third important cereal crop, contributing 2.2 percent to the value added in agriculture and 0.4 percent to GDP. Maize was targeted to be sown on 2.4 million acres with production target of 5.59 million tons for 2017-18. However, the target was missed by 4.74 percent giving total output of 5.32 million tons. Production declined by 7 percent when compared to 6.1 million tons last year. Maize production target has been fixed at 5.301 million tons for Kharif 2018-19, but water shortage may affect the crop' prospects.
Pakistan Meteorological Department has estimated that snow cover during the winter season was 20 to 25 percent less than average. Further rainfalls, during April-June, are forecast to be less than normal, while the temperature is expected to remain one to two centigrade warmer than normal. Crops would therefore remain under stress due to water shortage during Kharif season.
Govt claimed a 13 year high growth of 3.8 percent in agricultural sector during 2017-18 and has projected the same rate for 2018-19. However, government officials as well as independent economists have challenged these claims based on available data. Growth figure is inflated as the country has missed major crops- wheat, cotton, maize, gram and lentil targets set for 2017-18, they maintained.
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