Funding sources: opinion poll bodies' reluctance creates doubts about surveys

The majority of opinion poll organisations in Pakistan conducting surveys on popularity of different political leaders and comparison of performance in governance between provinces are reluctant to disclose their source of funding for the exercise.
Amir Jahangir, a survey expert, told this correspondent, "If a pollster does not publish sources of funding and nature of the sample along with the final results then its authenticity will always remain suspicious while opinion polls must be conducted in a scientific manner and require specific expertise for accurate results."
There is always a margin of variation in the final results of an opinion poll depending on different factors like geography, culture, type of questions and timing, Jahangir said. He maintained that most of the surveys are funded by United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), National Democratic Institute (NDI) and even European Union (EU), adding that the authenticity and credibility of these surveys depend on financial autonomy of the organization that is conducting it.
Jahangir further contended that the credibility of a survey depends on methodology and the sample size. He further explained, "If the survey is based on interviews of businessmen or agriculturists, the survey would go in favour of Pakistan Muslim League-N. There is a strong possibility that a survey conducted in Lahore will go in favour of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif," he said.
Gallup Pakistan (national), Pulse Consultant (national) and IPOR (provincial) recent surveys show that PML-N remains the preferred party among voters in Punjab but the PTI has gained ground and narrowed the gap significantly. The PTI remains the dominant party for voters in KPK, while PPP is ahead in Sindh. In Balochistan, there is a three party mix.
Gallup Pakistan survey covers the time period between 1 May to 6 June, 2018 and the sample size was 3000. It had PML-N as the leading party in voter preference even though it witnessed an 8% decline from 2017, with 26% of respondents saying they would vote for the party in 2018. Voter preference for the PTI was 25%, a 1% decline from 2017 with only 16% of respondents stating they would vote for the PPP.
Talking to Business Recorder, a senior official of Gallup-Pakistan claimed that Gallup is using international standards to conduct surveys on different topics, but declined to disclose the source of funding for these surveys. He, however, said that his organisation is not attached to any political party and works as an independent institution. "It is the prerogative of the people to accept or reject results of any survey conducted by us," he said.
A third poll conducted by the Institute for Public Opinion Research (IPOR) focused on 141 National Assembly constituencies in Punjab. The survey covered the period 15 April to 2 June, 2018 and revealed that 51% of respondents would vote for the PML-N, with 30% saying they would vote for the PTI, and 5% choosing PPP.
According to a research fellow at Islamabad Policy Research Institute (IPRI) on condition of anonymity survey organizations are usually funded by lobbyists to carry out surveys on a given subject. He added that a core team which consists of the employees of the organization has the right to give a final shape a survey.
Pulse survey covered the time period from 13 May to 28 May, 2018 and the sample size was 3163. Findings of the Pulse survey reveal that although PML-N remained the preferred party among voters in Punjab, its popularity had fallen by 12% since 2017. In the 2018 poll, 43% of respondents said they would vote for the PML-N which was 55% in 2017. The PTI gained 14% points among voters, with 34% of respondents stating they would vote for the party in 2018, compared to 20% in 2017. Fewer voters favoured the PPP, with the party's preference among voters in Punjab falling to 5% from 7% in 2013.