Former Interior Minister Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan is expected to retain National Assembly seat from his home constituency, NA-59 Rawalpindi-III (Chakri), but may lose NA-63 Rawalpindi-VII (Taxila) to Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) Ghulam Sarwar Khan.
The dissident PML-N leader is contesting from two National Assembly seats, NA-59 and NA-63, and two provincial assembly seats, PP-10 and PP-14, as an independent candidate where he is facing tough contest against his rival candidates. Nisar would face PTI Ghulam Sarwar Khan and Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) Qamar-ul-Islam Raja - both candidates believed to be equally popular in NA-63 especially in urban parts of the constituency.
An anecdotal survey conducted by Business Recorder revealed that Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan may retain his NA-59 seat, but it would not be a shoo-in and is expected to face a tough contest, as his former party leadership is making all out effort to damage his vote bank by fielding Qamar-ul-Islam Raja. In 2013 general election, Chaudhry Nisar won with 63366 vote lead from NA-59 on PML-N ticket and secured 132,905 votes against PTI's Lieutenant Colonel Ajmal Sabir Raja (retd) who bagged 69539 votes.
This time around, PTI has awarded its ticket to Ghulam Sarwar Khan, the traditional rival of Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan, who is contesting from both NA-59 and NA-63 against the former interior minister, but survey revealed that the position of estranged PML-N leader is not strong in NA-63.
NA-59, [old NA-52 Rawalpindi-III], has a total population of 761981 with total registered voters 357199 including 188374 male and 168825 female. The constituency consists of Adwal, Banda, Bassali, Chakri, Gorakhpur, Sehal, Chaklala, Jarahi, Morgah, Topi, Lakhan-I, Lakhan- II, Kotha KaIan, Dharnial and Dhamman Syedan of Rawalpindi District.
Several constituents of the area told this correspondent that PML-N vote bank has been affected due to differences within the party ranks which was apparent after Qamar-ul-Islam Raja was fielded against Chaudhry Nisar. Raja is behind bars in graft cases, his children aged 12 and 16 have been canvassing for him and have termed their father's arrest political victimization which may win the incarcerated leader the sympathy vote.
"Chaudhry Nisar has done a lot for the area and this is the reason why the people, including PML-N supporters, will vote for him even though he is standing as an independent," said Raja Shakeel Ahmad, a resident of Morgah. Shakeel, a PML-N worker but supporting Chaudhry Nisar, explained that he considers Nawaz Sharif his leader, but he would vote for Chaudhry Nisar for his "politics of principles". "Chaudhry Nisar's differences with party leadership is very unfortunate but he is a man of principles which is why we support him", he added.
Shehzad Ahmad Chaudhry, a shopkeeper in Saidpur road and a resident of Chakri, said that apart from his affiliation for more than three decades with PML-N, Chaudhry Nisar enjoys considerable popularity in his home constituency which would help him retain the National Assembly seat.
NA-63, mostly consisting of areas of tehsil Taxila and Adyala, is considered a strong hold of PTI's Ghulam Sarwar Khan and he is expected to retain his seat after July 25 general elections. Ghulam Sarwar Khan would face Mumtaz Khan of PML-N, Syed Ishrat Ali Zaidi of PPP, Muhammad Waqas Khan of Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA), and Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan.
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