A United Nations report that claims that between 20,000 and 30,000 fighters of the Islamic State (IS) or Daesh remain in Iraq and Syria despite the jihadist group's defeat and a halt in the flow of foreigners joining its ranks must, however, constitute a reason of grave concern for Pakistan because this UN sanctions monitors report also says that some of the key operatives are being relocated to Afghanistan. The horrendous pre-poll Mastung suicide blast, for example, is a strong evidence of wider and deeper footprints of this outfit which still has between 3,000 and 4,000 IS jihadists based in Libya and it is not known how many of them will be heading to Afghanistan in the near future. UN member-states are said to have told the monitors that the total IS membership in Iraq and Syria is "between 20,000 and 30,000 individuals, roughly equally distributed between the two countries." "Among these is still a significant component of the many thousands of active foreign terrorist fighters," the report further says.
Although the sanctions monitoring team submits independent reports every six months to the Security Council on the IS and al-Qaeda, which are on the UN terrorist blacklist, the report carried by media has not spoken about the presence of the latter organisation and its activities. Unlike al-Qaeda that had relocated itself to the Pak-Afghan border areas from various parts of the Arabian Peninsula and Africa following the US invasion of Afghanistan in 2001, the IS has found it increasingly difficult to do the same mainly because of two back-to-back operations - Zarb-e-Azb and Raddul Fasaad - launched by Pakistan army to root out terrorism and extremism from the country, particularly in areas that were considered terrorist safe havens. Unfortunately, however, the success of these highly valuable operations has been clouded by lack of implementation on the National Action Plan by the PML-N government.
The world is aware of the fact that this outfit once controlled large swathes of territory in Iraq and Syria, but last year it was driven out of Mosul and Raqa - IS's twin seats of power. By January 2018, IS was confined to small pockets of territory in Syria, although the UN report says the group "showed greater resilience" in eastern Syria. IS "is still able to mount attacks inside Syrian territory. It does not fully control any territory in Iraq, but it remains active through sleeper cells" of agents hiding out in the desert and elsewhere, says the report. Some member-states raised concerns about new IS cells emerging from the densely populated Rukban camp for internally displaced persons in southern Syria, on the border with Jordan, where families of IS fighters are now living.
From Pakistan's perspective, however, the relocation of IS operatives to Afghanistan from various parts of the Arab world poses an existential threat to the country's security. The Afghan Taliban, who have been battling the Afghan and foreign troops with a view to free their homeland from the "foreign occupation", have been tolerating, albeit reluctantly, IS's increased presence on their soil owing to a variety of reasons. One of the principal reasons is the abundance of cash through which the IS easily attracts foot soldiers to its narrative in a land where there exist little or no means of livelihood for millions of poor Afghan. The relocation of IS operatives to Afghanistan therefore leaves no room for complacency. Our policymakers must not lose sight of the fact that unlike al-Qaeda or any other terror organisation this outfit has no demand or set of demands. Last but not least, the upcoming PTI government must be afforded full opportunity to pursue and review Pak-Afghan border fencing and other objectives set by the civilian-military leadership without let or hindrance.
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