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US Treasury yields rose on Tuesday in line with the European bond market as global sentiment brightened after equities worldwide stabilized and the Turkish lira came off recent record lows against the dollar. US yields' advance continued for a second straight session after having fallen to four-week lows early on Monday.
In retaliation against trade moves by the United States, President Tayyip Erdogan said on Tuesday Turkey would boycott electronic products from the United States. The announcement had little impact on the US stock market, which traded higher. "My guess is that the Turkey-US conflict settles this week as the Turkish government hands over Pastor Andrew Brunson probably as early as tomorrow," said Tom di Galoma, managing director at Seaport Global in New York.
"When that happens, the pressure comes off emerging markets and look for Treasury prices to retreat back toward 2.95 percent yield on the 10 year where buying should surface again," he added. Brunson is at the center of the Turkey-US drama. The evangelical pastor has been under house arrest after being in a Turkish prison for 21 months. Brunson, who has lived in Turkey for more than two decades, was accused of helping supporters of Fethullah Gulen, a US-based cleric who Turkish authorities say masterminded the 2016 coup attempt.
In Europe, bond markets were calmer as Germany's 10-year yields inched higher. Concerns about the exposure of European banks to Turkey had pushed up peripheral bond yields in recent days, but Italian, Spanish and Portuguese 10-year yields fell on Tuesday. "The general consensus in the US Treasury market on Turkey is that there is limited impact for now unless there is some sort of broader contagion in the euro zone," said Gennadiy Goldberg, senior interest rates strategist at TD Securities in New York.
In afternoon trading, US 10-year yields were up at 2.894 percent, from 2.877 percent late on Monday. US 30-year yields were also higher at 3.061 percent from Monday's 3.045 percent. On the front end of the curve, US 2-year yields inched up to 2.632 percent from 2.612 percent on Monday. Jim Vogel, interest rate strategist at FTN Financial in Memphis, Tennessee, said the retracement in US yields since last Thursday has been less than 30 percent on the long end of the curve and about 40 percent in intermediates for US Treasuries and high-grade European sovereigns.

Copyright Reuters, 2018

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