Imran has a problem. There is a contradiction between what he wants to do and what he can do. The dream is out of sync with reality. Looks like it will take the whole of his term to manage the dream- reality disconnect. This probably explains why PTI is still in the 'campaign mode'; a hashtag that the CM Sindh used to telling effect.
The multiplier effect of 5 million housing units is phenomenal. But where is the money? Private sector interest can only be ignited if the government throws in free land (government does own prime property in most urban centres), but that may raise serious questions of propriety and fiduciary responsibility.
Ten million jobs is music to our ears. But that requires the economy to grow at a fast clip. All indications are of growth sliding before it can perk up. Besides housing, SMEs growth is what they are betting on for job creation. That too is not going to happen in a hurry. Finally, government, that last refuge of the unemployed has the 'house full' sign up. Tickets can now be only obtained in the black market, which the PTI has promised to drive into liquidation.
Exports are the key to external sector woes. There are structural issues here of competitiveness and adjusting production to changing demand patterns. This will take time. Meanwhile, government will be under pressure to throw money at the problem - some legitimate (held up refunds, high cost of energy, and the need to countervail the ripple effect of high import tariffs) and some placatory (that borders on rent seeking). But where is the money?
On the fiscal side, there cannot be any 'bailouts'. You can only print rupees (i.e., borrow from the State Bank; in a rising interest rate environment banks are not exactly falling over each other to buy government paper), with all its dire consequences. Higher tax receipts are a distant dream, despite the fillip of greater income reporting as a consequence of the amnesty. Even in the unlikely event of a substantial increase it will be the provinces, and not the Federal government, who will be the main beneficiaries. And tinkering with the NFC award would be like walking into the hornet's nest. There is not much juice there in non-FBR taxes either - government wouldn't wish to shed its populist plumage.
Conception of a welfare state is exciting, but the threat of stillbirth looms large. If it remains a promise more than a probability, what does Imran do?
Fix broken windows.
The theory - take care of small problems and it will help solve the big ones - dates back to 1982 when Wilson and Kelling published their groundbreaking paper. They used broken windows as a metaphor for disorder, linking disorder and incivility within a community to subsequent occurrences of serious crime. Disorders (physical and social) do a social signaling; it is like the 'landscape' communicating to the people. As an illustration, they consider a pavement: "Some litter accumulates. Soon more litter accumulates. Eventually, people start leaving bags of refuse from take-out restaurants there and even break into cars".
Our urban landscape is signaling like mad but somehow we are not receiving the message. Not fixing urban windows is breeding frustration and contempt for the government - and transmogrifying us into incredibly selfish beings. Worse, we are missing the link between disorder and crime.
Among the plethora of urban disorders three stand out: shrinking public spaces where pedestrians feel quarantined, traffic issues, and filth. We are of course giving public toilets a miss - men, doglike, can always find a tree but women have to contend with serious kidney issues. We are also skipping graveyards - fear of the family not finding nine yards to lay us into makes us want to negotiate with Azrael. Safe drinking water is crowded out by all the other urban pressures.
The shopping areas, say of Karachi, are 'no-go' zones for pedestrians - unless you have a chauffeur (setting down the lady, who can do with a bit of a walk, bang in front of the shop), or you don't think twice to park your motor bike on the pavement. Whatever little space is left is encroached upon by the shops. Elsewhere, you can cross a road only at your own peril: zebra crossings mean nothing to the motorists and the overhead pedestrian bridges were actually meant for advertising billboards.
If the crated pedestrians represent social disorder, the traffic mayhem combines both social and physical. Jumping red lights is a sport that almost everyone is now joining in. Double parking is considered an entitlement, and motorcyclists think nothing of coming at you from the wrong side of a one way street; bad enough you have to jostle with them for space on the road and for the few parking slots. Traffic engineering is the confusion-confounded marvel. To the government, where decent public transport refuses to inch-up its wish-list, this is a spectator sport for the traffic police - and the spectators get paid and 'tipped'.
It is amazing how quickly we get used to filth, happily add to it, and live to suffer the consequences of this collective suicide. Even the government now knows there is money to be made in solid waste management (SWM), besides huge health and environmental savings, and yet seems helpless. We are yet to manage the collection issues, and continue to struggle with landfill sites and incineration. Recycling, the ultimate stage of waste management cycle, remains a far cry.
The good news is that if you tame these three horses of Apocalypse you get a free ride on the fourth horse - of conquest. They don't need money - in fact they can make money (SWM, traffic fines, parking charges, encroachment penalties) - and you get a bagful of political brownie points. Top it up with decent public transport and you win that cherry on the cake; and mind you there is not a city in the world where public transport is not subsidized.
These matters are part of Imran's narrative, except he does not do a great job of articulating it -either because of his loftier aims, or because this is exactly what Shahbaz was already working on in Punjab.
Why do we have this sneaking suspicion that deep down Imran admires Shahbaz?
beghot2@gmail.com
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