The Australian and New Zealand dollars held their nerve on Thursday even as global share markets crumbled for a second day, with losses on Wall Street and a sharp drop in Treasury yields hindering their US counterpart. The Aussie dollar was 0.26 percent firmer at $0.7076, having again found solid support around the $0.7041/50 area which marks recent 32-month lows.
The kiwi was likewise steady at $0.6523, after garnering support at $0.6500. Such stability was unusual as the currencies are considered leveraged to global growth prospects and are often sold at times of market stress. Australian government bond futures caught the general safe-haven bid and rallied for a third straight session. The three-year bond contract firmed 2.5 ticks to 97.97.940, while the 10-year contract gained 4.5 ticks to 97.3750.
Yields on New Zealand government bonds fell as much as 7 basis points at the long end of the curve. Sean Callow, a senior FX strategist at Westpac, noted the Aussie had become less and less correlated to stocks in recent weeks with long-term buyers attracted at levels near $0.7000. The sudden setback on Wall Street, worries about US corporate earnings and signs of weakness in the housing market there was making investors question whether the Federal Reserve could keep raising interest rates toward restrictive territory.
"You could argue that fall in pricing for Fed hikes is offsetting US dollar safe-haven demand," said Callow. "Market pricing for a December hike has come back to 67 percent from 80 percent early this week."
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