Brazil is having its best-ever start to a grain crop and soyabean output could be as high as 129 million tonnes in 2018/19, depending on the weather and the adequate use of inputs, consultancy Agroconsult said on Thursday.
Agroconsult said in a presentation during the annual meeting of grain exporters association ANEC in Sao Paulo that the new soya crop is estimated to remain in a range between 123 million tonnes and 129 million tonnes, compared with the record 120 million tonnes in 2017/18.
Agroconsult's chief analyst André Pessôa said that soya planting reached 73 percent of the area by mid-November, ahead of last year when farmers had planted 57 percent of the fields. Ample soil moisture has allowed a quick sowing pace.
Pessôa projected the country would end 2018 with record soyabean exports of 82.1 million tonnes on strong Chinese demand, sharply up from 68.5 million tonnes exported in 2017.
But he does not believe exports will grow next year, projecting a volume of 73.2 million tonnes for 2019. "There will be practically no beans left," he said, referring to almost no carry-over stocks from the previous crop as traders ship almost all available beans because Chinese buyers are avoiding US soya at a time when the export window would normally shift northward.
Pessôa said some traders have been cautious when taking positions forward in the soya trade, due to the uncertainty over the US-China trade war. If the two countries reach a deal, Chinese soya import focus could turn to the United States and its ample supplies.
Agroconsult projects a large corn crop as well in Brazil in the 2018/19 crop, at 95.3 million tonnes, compared with 80.8 million tonnes in previous season. Brazil corn exports are seen jumping to 31 million tonnes next year versus 22 million tonnes projected for 2018.
Comments
Comments are closed.