US dry natural gas production should rise to an all-time high of 83.30 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in 2018 from a record high 74.77 bcfd in 2017, the Energy Information Administration's Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) said on Tuesday.
The latest December output projection for 2018 was up from EIA's 83.23-bcfd forecast in November. EIA also projected US gas consumption would rise to an all-time high of 81.74 bcfd in 2018 from 74.32 bcfd in 2017. That 2018 demand projection in the December STEO report was up from EIA's 81.11-bcfd forecast for the year in its November report and would top the current annual record high of 74.98 bcfd consumed on average in 2016.
EIA projected output in 2019 would rise to 89.99 bcfd but usage would ease to 81.57 bcfd. It forecast US net gas exports would rise to 2.1 bcfd in 2018 and 6.2 bcfd in 2019, from 0.4 bcfd in 2017. In 2017, the United States became a net gas exporter for the first time in 60 years. In electrical generation, EIA projected gas would remain the primary US power plant fuel in 2018 and 2019 after first supplanting coal in 2016.
EIA projected the share of gas generation would rise to 35 percent in 2018 and 2019 from 32 percent in 2017. Coal's share of generation was forecast to slide to 28 percent in 2018 and 26 percent in 2019 from 30 percent in 2017. EIA projected the electric power sector would burn 644.4 million short tons of coal in 2018, which would be the lowest in 34 years, and 599.7 million short tons in 2019, the lowest since 1982. That compares with 665.0 million short tons in 2017, which was the lowest since 1984.
US carbon emissions have dropped as the power sector has been burning less coal. After US energy-related carbon dioxide emissions declined to 5,144 million tonnes in 2017, the least since 1992, EIA projected they would rise to 5,299 million tonnes in 2018 due to higher gas consumption during a colder winter and a warmer summer than in 2017. In 2019, carbon emissions are expected to slide to 5,234 million tonnes due to changes in weather, economic growth and energy prices.
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