Elections in five states have proved a major setback for Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and provided a boost for Congress and its still relatively young leader Rahul Gandhi. Variously described as a 'dry run', 'dress rehearsal' and 'semi-final' before the general elections due in May 2019, the BJP lost two major states outright and seemed poised to lose a third in its Hindutva heartland. According to results so far, in Rajasthan, Congress won 101 seats to BJP's 73 in the 199-seat state Assembly. In Chattisgarh, the count was Congress 68, BJP 16 in the 90-seat state Assembly. In Madhya Pradesh, Congress' tally was 115, one short of a simple majority in the 230-seat Assembly, with BJP trailing at 108. It is expected that either Congress will achieve a majority or UP Chief Minister Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj Party's two seats could help Congress form a government in Madhya Pradesh. In Telengana and Mizoram, local regional parties won with Congress a distant second. Although mid-term state elections are not always a reliable indicator of general elections to follow, it is interesting to note what has derailed the Modi-BJP electoral juggernaut at this juncture. Modi won the general elections in 2014 on the foundations of the Gujarat economic 'miracle' while he served two terms as chief minister of the state. The expectation therefore was that he would be able to replicate his economic success at the national level. Although India's growth is healthy, the demonitisation debacle lowered Modi's popularity and dimmed his reputation as a successful economic manager. The recent huge peasants' marches to Mumbai and New Delhi underlined the failure of Modi's government to address rural distress amongst farmers (over 300,000 peasants have committed suicide in recent years) and fulfil Modi's promise to double their incomes. Further, the Hindutva agenda of the BJP and aligned saffron groups oversaw if not encouraged mob lynching of Muslims for cow slaughter, thereby alienating the Muslim, lower caste and enlightened voter. The recent ratcheting up of the Ayodhya temple building campaign despite the Indian Supreme Court's stay order too appears to have backfired electorally because it raised hackles throughout the country of another round of communal conflict and clashes. The three states of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chattisgarh are considered the stronghold of BJP's Hindutva vote bank. The seriousness of this electoral setback in BJP's fortunes cannot therefore be easily dismissed.
These five state elections results may have dimmed Modi's star as a formidable election winner, but it may be too early to write him off or even conclude that he risks defeat in the 2019 general elections. Even before these state elections, the received wisdom was that Modi would probably win again in 2019 but with a reduced majority. The loss of the three major 'cow belt' states though has raised ticklish questions about Modi's prospects in 2019. On the other hand, Rahul Gandhi has recovered some ground steadily lost to the BJP in recent years at the state level. Rahul's strategy appears to be to unite the fractious factions of his own Congress Party while forging electoral alliances with regional and leftist opposition parties across the face of India. He has attempted to steal some of the Hindutva thunder of the BJP by adopting symbols and tactics to out-saffron the BJP in some areas, but if the negative fallout of the latter's reliance on a Hindutva agenda is any guide, Congress may still be better served by sticking to its secular roots in opposition to the divisive communal politics of the BJP. Whatever the outcome of the 2019 general elections, whether a weakened Modi's reduced victory or some surprise upset, the outcome is unlikely to dent India's hostility to any meaningful engagement with Pakistan for normalisation of relations. Observers on this side of the border therefore can for the foreseeable future only analyse trends and developments on the Indian political horizon without any illusions of any quick turnaround in Pakistan-India's fraught relations.
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