Donald Trump has proved to be the most erratic President in history of the US. A string of whimsical, knee-jerk decisions has roiled the domestic scene as well as the world's strategic landscape. His latest gaffe may prove the most asinine of all. In a surprise announcement, Trump announced the US would be withdrawing all 2,000 US troops from Syria. This was followed by the news that about half the remaining US troops in Afghanistan, around 7,000, would also be withdrawn. These decisions came despite the disagreement of senior aides. Following a last-ditch effort by Defence Secretary James Mattis to persuade Trump to reverse these ill thought through decisions, he resigned. Mattis thus becomes the latest in the continuous parade of senior administration officials to fall out with their erratic boss and leave. Such is the state of morale in the administration that replacements are proving difficult to find. Mattis, a four-star retired Marine general with 40 years of combat experience, was widely respected at home and abroad for being the 'only adult' in the Oval Office. His departure and the decisions that prompted it have worried US allies from Europe to the Asia-Pacific. The Syrian withdrawal without so much as an effort at some quid pro quo sends exactly the wrong signal to allies and enemies. The Kurdish militia YPG, as part of the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces has been at the forefront of the struggle against Islamic State (IS). It now stands abandoned and facing a possible two-front war if Turkey's Erdogan follows through on his pledge to mount a military campaign against the YPG that Turkey considers aligned with the Turkish PKK in southeast Turkey. YPG's response says it all. They say they may have to abandon frontline positions along the Euphrates River (where IS has been pushed into a sliver of territory) to defend themselves against any Turkish offensive. The Kurds must be ruing having trusted the US. They find themselves abandoned in the middle of an existential struggle like so many allies the US has used and then thrown away like toilet paper in its adventures abroad. The gainers from Trump's decision will be Russia (Putin is delighted), Iran, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and the remaining IS that is far from completely eliminated. The fallout of the Afghan decision may prove even more severe. Despite brave words from the Kabul government, its consternation is floating on the surface. If the Syrian decision can be questioned as to its timing and logic, the Afghan withdrawal decision beggars belief. The US has of late been engaged in intensive negotiations with the Afghan Taliban to seek a peaceful end to US involvement in that country. With battlefield realities increasingly showing Taliban territorial gains and the casualty rate of the Afghan forces being described as unsustainable, Trump has handed the prospect of victory on a silver platter to the Taliban, a prospect that sends shivers down the spine of Afghan citizens. Although European allies and Nato have respectively vowed to continue their engagement in Syria and Afghanistan, their capitals have been rocked by Trump's inexplicable decisions that owe more to appeasing his domestic political base by following through on his campaign promises with nary a thought for the consequences.
Donald Trump is the greatest anomaly to have graced the White House. Part of the 'populist' right wing surge in the US and many parts of Europe, it is a phenomenon that can only be described as operating on pre-conceived notions and if the awkward facts do not fit into that scenario, so much the worse for the facts. The Syrian withdrawal promises trouble at Turkey's hands for the Kurds as reward for their sacrifices in the war against IS, and a bounty for Russia, Iran and Assad. The Afghan withdrawal offers the frightening prospect of the Taliban's return to power, with little assurance (a minimum demand the US seems to have accepted in its negotiations with the Taliban) that 9/11 will not occur again. Trump's decisions are neither in the US's own interests nor those of its allies that he is signalling are now more or less on their own. The only sound amidst the deafening silence in the wake of this foolishness is the chuckling in the Kremlin, Tehran, and in the Afghan Taliban ranks.
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