Venezuela's crisis

The world is watching with bated breath the drama playing out in Venezuela. Can Nicolas Maduro's government/presidency survive the onslaught of the US-led campaign for regime change? What are the factors that have led the once promising Chavista revolution to this impasse? What, if any, have been the strategic and tactical mistakes along the way that have left the Maduro regime so under siege?
It should be stated at the very outset that US arrogance vis-à-vis regimes that do not toe its line worldwide is only surpassed by its self-anointed role of master of Latin America (insultingly referred to as the US's 'backyard'). There is a long and sorry history of US intervention in Latin America. In the past, dictators planted with US support throughout Latin America were eventually only overthrown when the people's resistance forced Washington to abandon its satraps as unsustainable any longer. Where left wing or (in recent years) left of centre governments did manage to come to power through the ballot box (the exception is Cuba, where a revolution succeeded in capturing power), a string of external pressures orchestrated by Washington combined with internal unrest and disaffection with the support of local elites served to destabilise and eventually defeat such dispensations. What followed after 'democratic' elections were more often than not right wing governments wedded to the interests of the landowning and capitalist elite, tied in myriads of strings of vested interest with 'Big Brother' to the north.
Throughout the 1950s and 1960s, especially the latter decade, Latin American military dictatorships brought to power through coups with the support of Washington were the norm. The 1958 triumph of Fidel Castro's revolution in Cuba inspired a whole palette of guerrilla movements throughout Latin America, including in some cases urban guerrilla struggle. None of these movements succeeded. The longest running one in Colombia has of late succumbed to fatigue and abandoned the armed struggle road in exchange for amnesty and being allowed to enter the political mainstream.
In Venezuela's case, the 1990s saw Hugo Chavez being elected President. Despite the disquiet and seething resentment of the elite, he used Venezuela's oil revenues (the country has the largest confirmed oil reserves in the world) to redistribute wealth, carry out social welfare measures and raise millions out of stark poverty. This was enough to earn him the ire of the US, which imposed sanctions on Venezuela. Chavez retaliated by nationalising US oil interests in Venezuela, thereby setting the stage for repeated coup attempts and assassination plots against his life. All these efforts were beaten back with the wholesale and unstinting support of the masses who owned the Chavista revolution as their own. Maduro too has been the victim of repeated assassination attempts, mercifully unsuccessful.
When Chavez died of cancer, Maduro was elected President in his place. His ascent to power coincided with the precipitate fall in international oil prices (slashed to one-third), increased sanctions by Washington, and the incremental unleashing of US-trained young agitators, of whom the opposition's presidential pretender Juan Guaido is a prime example. These young agitators are part of a plan floated by Washington to bring about regime change in Eastern Europe (the so-called 'colour' revolutions), the Arab world (the misnamed and short lived Arab Spring), and any other country in the world that resists the US's imperial hegemony.
In Venezuela's case, the oil is what is making Washington, sundry European capitals in tow, and some right wing governments in Latin America drool. But it must be admitted that both Chavez and Maduro missed the bus of putting Venezuela on the road to sustainable economic growth by failing to use the window provided by oil revenues (when they were high) to diversify the economy away from dependence on the export of just one commodity. The result is that the crash in oil prices and the sanctions earlier imposed by Washington and now ratcheted up by US President Donald Trump have produced hyperinflation, the collapse of normal day to day economic functions and the desperate fleeing of people unable to manage in the country's straitened circumstances into neighbouring countries. All this has been pounced upon by Washington and its local satraps to challenge the Maduro regime as illegitimate and Juan Guaido to declare himself president. Ironically, the never failing upholders of democracy and human rights amongst the European countries have joined in a chorus Washington's campaign to get rid of Maduro.
What is the likely outcome of all these manouevres? So far the Venezuelan military is standing by the Maduro regime despite the defection of an Air Force General who called on his colleagues to join him. Guaido tried to dent this support by offering amnesty to soldiers not involved in human rights abuses. So far at least, this gambit has failed to crack the solid front of the military behind Maduro. Were this front to develop cracks, it is uncertain how long Maduro and his supporters could hold out against the opposition agitators in the streets, possible inter-military fighting, and threatened invasion by the US from neighbouring countries.
If the military remains united, disciplined and consistent in its support for Maduro, this may give pause to US plans for a military intervention or, horrifyingly, may persuade Washington to go for a bigger military intervention ('shock and awe'). In either case, were Maduro to be overthrown by the US and its local tools, there is no ruling out the descent of Venezuela into a civil war with devastating consequences for its people and the region.
The imperialist hegemon the US, with Europe and the Latin American right in tow, is carrying on its traditional long standing policy of intervention, military and hybrid, in Venezuela as the last bastion of the elected Left in the continent. It will be interesting to watch how the people of Venezuela challenge this blatant interference and intervention in their sovereign internal affairs. Watch this space.
[email protected]
rashed-rahman.blogspot.com