Two new southern Punjab provinces proposal

While the issue of creating a new province in southern Punjab simmers on the backburner, the opposition Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) has moved a bill on January 29, 2019, advocating the creation of not one but two new provinces in southern Punjab. These new provinces, according to the PML-N bill, will comprise Bahawalpur (the present administrative division) and South Punjab (comprising Dera Ghazi Khan and Multan divisions). In principle all three major political parties, the ruling Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaaf (PTI), Pakistan People's Party (PPP) and PML-N are committed to the creation of a new province (or now two in the PML-N's case) in southern Punjab. The argument for this innovation is that the size of the present Punjab province means a terribly lop-sided federation in which the brute majority of the largest and most developed province allows it to ride roughshod over the wishes of the smaller provinces. Within the existing boundaries of Punjab the Seraiki-speaking area of southern Punjab has long-standing complaints of neglect, partly at least because control from Lahore works against the region's development needs. The PTI is committed in its election manifesto to the creation of a southern Punjab province but since coming to power six months ago has shown precious little interest in pursuing the idea. This may be due to the lingering concern that any division of Punjab may threaten its precarious majority in the province. It may also be that the difficulties attendant on the proposal are nothing to be sneezed at. First and foremost, the idea cannot move forward without a consensus on the issue amongst all stakeholders and the major political parties. The PML-N bill can be interpreted as a sincere proposal in the interests of the region, as former prime minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi has argued, or as its detractors hold, a diversionary political tactic to throw a spanner in the works of any attempt to grapple with the complexities of the issue and in the process embarrass the PTI government for its alleged failure to fulfil its election pledge. It should not however be forgotten that the PTI government in the Centre and in Punjab rests on the support of the Seraiki belt politicos who switched sides (as is their wont) to the PTI just before the 2018 elections. The PTI therefore arguably faces pressure from within its ranks too in the shape of its Seraiki belt members to see the idea through until it reaches fruition.
Of the proposals on the table, two stand out. One is that the new province be carved out of existing Punjab on an ethnic/linguistic basis (mainly Seraiki speaking areas) and the other a division on an administrative basis. The first option runs the risk of opening a Pandora's box of demands for new provinces on an ethnic/linguistic basis by for example the Hazaras in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, the Pashtuns in Balochistan, and Urdu speakers in Sindh. Once the principle of a new ethnic/linguistic province is conceded in Punjab, it will be difficult to resist similar demands from such groups elsewhere. Finding anything resembling a consensus on these demands may well prove beyond the wisdom of our political class. The option of an administrative division of Punjab does not suffer from such drawbacks but may leave disgruntled groups unhappy at being lumped with others they wish to demarcate themselves from. However, on balance this appears the less difficult of the options to come to an agreement on. While the so far slow, meandering journey to sorting out Punjab's division proceeds, there is nothing to stop the PTI government from devolving power to southern Punjab to address local grievances and provide governance that reverses the 'arms length' control from Lahore. The PTI government has voiced measures to devolve administrative and law enforcement arrangements to southern Punjab within a year. That may not be a bad beginning and the experience could also help inform opinion about the best way forward from there.