US Treasury yields rose on Tuesday after lawmakers reached a tentative pact to avert another government shutdown, and as investors focused on inflation data expected on Wednesday for further signals about interest rate policy. The agreement in principle to avoid another shutdown helped boost stock markets and reduce demand for safe-haven bonds, though President Donald Trump said he has yet to decide whether to support the agreement.
There was also optimism that the United States would reach a trade deal with China ahead of high-level trade talks as the world's two largest economies attempt to hammer out a deal ahead of a March 1 deadline and avoid another escalation of tariffs. For the most part, however, investors were focused on Federal Reserve policy as they weighed still-solid US economic growth, albeit with low inflation, against a worsening international economic picture.
"The market is really trying to figure out which side of that drives the market," said Brian Daingerfield, a macro strategist at NatWest Markets in Stamford, Connecticut. Benchmark 10-year yields have fallen from 2.799 percent on Jan. 18 and are down from a seven-year high of 3.261 percent in October as investors price in a far more dovish Federal Reserve. The yields bounced off technical support at around 2.62 percent on Friday. On Tuesday, the notes fell 7/32 in price to yield 2.686 percent.
Consumer price data due on Wednesday will be the next indication of whether prices are rising, which could spur the US central bank to resume raising rates. "Inflation will be an extremely important reading for the Fed in terms of their ability to stay patient. That's very much tied to inflation staying low," said Daingerfield. Retail sales data for December on Thursday and consumer sentiment data on Friday were also in focus for further signals about the US economy's strength. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said on Tuesday that he does not see the risk of a US recession as elevated.
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