A looming threat

There is a dire new warning about melting of the Himalayan glaciers that feed ten of the world's most important river systems, including the Ganges, Yellow Mekong, Irrawaddy and our very own Indus. Two-thirds of the Himalayan glaciers, the world's "Third Pole", could melt by 2100 if global emissions are not reduced, says a study report - result of five-year-long labour of more than 350 researchers, policy experts, 185 organisations, 210 authors, 20 review editors and 125 external reviewers - released the other day by Kathmandu-based International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development. According to the report, even if the 2015 Paris Agreement target to keep global temperatures 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels and its "most ambitious" goal to pursue efforts to limit the rise to 1.5 Celsius is achieved, it would mean a rise of 2.1 C in the Himalayan region. And in case emissions are not reduced, the increase would be as high as 5 degrees Celsius.
Although there is some scientific uncertainty as to what exactly Nature holds for the future, a large body of scientific evidence suggests climate change is a reality. Glaciers are receding at a fast rate, causing eruption of glacial lakes in many places. The present report points out that satellite data show the number of such lakes in the Himalayan region has grown in a decade from 3,350 in 1990 to 4,260. Climate scientists have for a while been predicting such changes and worse to come in the form of alternating cycles of floods, droughts, and lower pre-monsoon river flows. For several years now, Pakistan has been experiencing odd hydro-climatic events that are likely to become more and more frequent in the next few decades, disrupting its agrarian economy with devastating consequences for food security, livelihoods of rural poor, hydel power generation, urban water systems, and air quality. That should be a serious cause of worry for our policy planners as Pakistan is already among the world's ten most water-stressed countries.
The PTI government has shown some interest in addressing environmental issues, though so far only in planting trees. Surely, growing trees is necessary to lessen air pollution and mitigate some of the effects of rising temperatures. All the more so, in view of the alarming fact that the country's forest cover is fast depleting at the rate of nearly 1.7 percent a year. But some other measures also need to be adopted to confront the impending challenge. As water scarcity stares this country in the face, it is imperative for the government to formulate a well thought-out water conservation and management policy, based on expert assessment of the existing resources. No less important is the need to devise adaptive strategies to deal with environment changes that can badly affect this country's physical and social structures. The looming threat of climate change calls for an urgent response.