Diplomatic and defence experts have advised the government to take all necessary steps and remain cautious as India can make more attempts to settle score with Pakistan as Indian prime minister Narendra Modi has recently hinted in this regard.
Speaking at a roundtable titled 'Escalation Management and Control between India and Pakistan' organised by the Islamabad Policy Institute (IPI) here on Friday, the diplomatic and defence experts said tensions between the two nuclear armed neighbours can further escalate.
Former senior Pakistani diplomats and generals said Modi has underestimated Pakistan's resolve to deny India any space for surgical or limited strikes, adding that de-escalation is not possible only through unilateral steps. The speakers argued that Modi is looking for a public face saving before de-escalating the ongoing crisis with Pakistan.
Former Defence secretary Lieutenant-General Asif Yasin Malik (retd) said a climb down from the escalatory ladder will be costly for Modi. Return of the Indian pilot is useful for building international image but, he opined, the gesture will not affect Indian calculations with regards to escalating or de-escalating tensions.
Speaking about Indian-held Kashmir, Malik said over 60 percent of the Kashmiri population is below the age of 35 years, which explains why the youth are more unwilling to accept Indian tyranny and occupation. "Dynamics of Kashmir are in nobody's control; it is on auto-pilot now."
The crisis erupted after a Kashmiri boy attacked Indian occupying forces in Indian-occupied Kashmir. However, unfortunately it is being used by the Indian leadership to divert the world attention from the Kashmir issue and bolstering the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) re-election prospects, he remarked.
While speaking about the current escalation, the former defence secretary said a state has to plan for both escalation and de-escalation, adding that poor planning for any of the two scenarios can lead to war.
Adviser to Strategic Plans Division and former ambassador Zamir Akram stressed the need for escalation management and control to ensure that nuclear deterrence is maintained. He emphasised that de-escalation is only possible once both adversaries have a common interest in de-escalation, adding that unilateral measures aimed at de-escalation will not work. He identified rationality, signalling, transparency and credibility as key factors influencing crisis management.
Credibility of deterrence is essential for de-escalation, he stated. In previous crises, he recalled, Pakistan and India exercised self-imposed restraint even when they had not tested the nuclear weapons. Now that both the neighbours are nuclear powers, the situation demands much more care, caution and responsibility from both the states as well as a greater role of international community to timely defuse the situation.
It was stated that credibility of the crisis manager is critical for both the sides. Helping India and Pakistan timely de-escalate the ongoing tensions is a test of the US credibility as a crisis manager. During the 1990 crisis, Robert Gates helped diffuse the South Asian crisis. However, in the present situation it remains to be seen whether the US is part of the problem or solution or both.
In response to a question about next possible steps towards de-escalation, the speakers said that restrictions on the individuals demanded by India and meeting some of the requirements of demarche shared by New Delhi could allow Indian political leadership to have face saving before its voters and de-escalate.
Former defence minister Lieutenant-General Naeem Lodhi (retd) warned about Indian military attempting more mischief in future. He, therefore, advised continued vigilance.
Former DG ACDA, Strategic Plans Division Khalid Banuri said the current crisis is a test of diplomacy. Pakistani diplomats must internationally highlight the Indian violations of the UN Charter, instigating an unprovoked international armed conflict and grave violations of the UN resolutions.
Defence analyst Syed Muhammad Ali said Pakistan has simultaneously demonstrated resolve and capability along with restraint in its calculated use of force. Pakistan Air Force could have caused much greater surprise but restrained itself because it only aimed at dissuading India from any future misadventure.
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