Modi's diminishing returns

Modi's strikes. This time in the air. Unfortuna-tely, neither surgical nor impactful. Then why this whole story. Perhaps trapped in his own jingoism and delusionism. His Kashmir visit to water and mountains was such a deep embarrassment and so widely mocked that he was desperate to divert humiliation. The Pulwama attack timing was perfect for the "surgical strike" in Pakistan that according to his party member would give them additional 22 seats - thus, the baseless hyper uproar. The refusal to share evidence but heap accusations is itself evidence of the hollowness of the claims. Modi has become a prisoner of his own virtual reality that has started biting him up close and real.
To understand the issue, understand the context. With Kashmir gathering support in the previously non-support international forums like the EU, the UN, etc., Modi needed to establish Pakistan's credentials as a sponsor of terror in Kashmir. Pulwama timing was apt for him but very inapt for Pakistan. Just at the time of the biggest investment from Saudi Arabia to our country, Pakistan would have wanted anything but cross border tension. Pakistan responded maturely. Modi by this time had carried his hysteria to a paranoia level and had to live his killer rhetoric-thus the Balakot attempt. Again, the virtual reality reruns. Faked videos showing faked attack that later was proven to be from a video game of "ARMA 2" released in 2015. This video was followed by claims of 300 to 600 terrorists being killed by the Indian Air Force during the attack. The footage of the site did not show the bodies, the blood, the families, the funerals, the protests and the destruction.
Political capital sooner or later also follows the economic theory of diminishing returns. In purely economic terms, the law of diminishing returns says that if you keep on producing more of the same factor of production, after a point, it will give you diminishing returns. In purely political terms, it may not apply. But then politics is rarely pure. The present Indo-Pak tensions are a result of an investment made by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in one major factor - hate Pakistan. This was the factor that played a role in his electoral victory in 2014 and this is the factor he is betting on to win elections due in a couple of months. The question thus is whether the same factor being used extensively by Prime Minister Modi will result in diminishing returns or not.
If we see the pattern of PM Modi's rise in politics we will see a history of ultra right Hinduvta politics playing a significant part. He was the Chief Minister who was blamed for supervising the massacre of thousands of Muslims in his home state in 2002. But with this brand he was also dubbed as an economic guru who turned the province of Gujarat into a growth model with a GDP growth rate of almost 10%compared to India's growth rate of nearly 8% in the period of 2000-2010. This twin "achievement" made him a hot candidate as the future PM of India. A combination of a robust economy and ruthless Hinduvta made him win the elections in 2014. The Supreme Court of India appointed a SIT, i.e., Special investigation team to examine Modi's complicity in the Gujarat pogrom but cleared him.
For PM Modi this formula of driving growth in India and clamping down on marginalized people became the set mantra to win and retain the highest seat of power. He won Uttar Pradesh elections in 2017 and appointed a man sharing his ideals Yogi Adityanath who has made a political career of demonizing Muslims. He defended a Hindu mob that murdered a Muslim man in 2015 on the suspicion that his family was eating beef, and said Muslims who balked at performing a yoga salutation to the sun should "drown themselves in the sea." However, he has not done what Modi was able to do to Gujarat. Uttar Pradesh is as big as Pakistan with a population of over 200 million. UP has the highest infant mortality rate in the country. Nearly half of its children are stunted. Educational outcomes are dismal. Youth unemployment is high.
Extremism is a mindset. Modi was not just anti-Pakistan or anti-Kashmiris or anti-Muslims, he is anti-equality. In an article published on Modi's Extremist India - Negation of Gandhi's Policy of Tolerance on 14th November 2018, Modi's treatment towards the lower class Dalits has been emphasized. Dalits are prevented from entering police stations in 27.6% of rural villages, Public health workers refuse to enter Dalit homes in 1 out of 3 rural villages, almost half of Dalit villages are denied access to water sources, Dalit and non-Dalit people cannot eat together in 70% of rural villages. Discrimination against the Sikh and Christian communities is on the rise too.
With this regressive thought process Modi entered his election campaign in 2019. His promised jobs to youth and farmer uplift has failed. He lost three major state elections in December 2018 in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chattisgarh. Kashmir, which India successfully pushed down as a back bench human rights debate for decades has started gaining uncomfortable limelight due UN Human Rights report, EU and House of Common discussions and the social media exposé of children, women and young men being blinded with pellet guns etc. Modi's visit to India was the final humiliation as empty streets greeted him. Thus when the Pulwama incident happened it was a typical knee jerk reaction from Modi to blame Pakistan. But this time he went one step forward and attacked Pakistan and claimed destroying a purported JEM camp with 600 casualties.
The law of diminishing returns has finally started catching up on Modi. Not only Pakistan but the world is asking "Why are fake video game ARMA 2 videos being shown as the combat evidence". Why did India attack Pakistan before giving evidence to Pakistan?" "Why do all on site visits and scientific evidence show no deaths, blood, protesting families in Balakot?" And more importantly why does a teenage Kashmiri boy decide that death is better than living a life of a Kashmiri under Modi oppression?
These are questions that Indian government, army and media have and are still dismissing as propaganda. There is nothing more dangerous than denial of danger. Modi's political capital is diminishing as he lives in the comfort of using strategic coercion, war mongering and fabrication of lies as tools of his electoral befooling. Sadly he does not realize, or may be care about the intended or unintended consequences of going on this dangerous trek. Whether he continues on this trickster and tricky path will determine the future of not only his electoral campaign but the 1.5 billion people living in the Sub Continent.
(The writer can be reached at [email protected])