Agriculture: to do more with less

Pakistan is a low income developing country. Agriculture is the most important sector of the country meeting food and fibre requirements of the fast growing population. Although the rate of population increase has considerably slowed down from over 3 percent in 1980s to 2.04 percent in recent years, it is still considered high. With the current rate of population growth, the population is expected to get doubled by 2050-making Pakistan 4th largest nation by 2050 from current status of 5th most populous state of the world. The total cultivated area has increased by just 40 percent during past 60 years, while there has been more than 4 times increase in population with urban expansion of over sevenfold-resulting into mega-cities as well as rising population pressure on cultivated land. Wheat production, a major food crop, has increased five-fold during the same period-yet the country is marginal importer of wheat. Tremendous efforts are needed both advances in technology and population control to narrow the food supply-demand gap. Reducing poverty, hunger and food insecurity are essential part of MDGs3 and are pre-requisites for economic development. Food security and economic growth mutually interact and reinforce each other in the development process [Timmer (2004)]. A country unable to produce the needed food and has no resources or afford to buy food from the international market to meet demand-supply gap, is not food sovereign state [PinstrupAndersen (2009)]. Food security is thus fundamental to national security, which is generally ignored [Fullbrook (2010)]. The extraordinary rise in food prices in later part of the first decade of 21st century raised an alarm bell on food security, particularly for the developing world. Pakistan is no exception. To achieve food-secure and pro-poor agricultural growth, Pakistan needs to adopt a comprehensive approach towards increasing productivity of all foods rather than merely concentrating upon achieving just wheat-based food security. Moreover, for benefiting from adoption of new agricultural technologies, the farm households should be able to finance expensive inputs and diversify their livelihoods through optimum farm and non-farm sectors' employment-mix. Managing food security in Pakistan also requires an understanding about its dimensions; future challenges of agricultural growth and food security; and impact of agricultural policies on food supply and income, the poor vulnerable in rural and urban areas; and what are do-able options. (Extract from a paper "The State of Food Security in Pakistan: Future Challenges and Coping Strategies" by Munir Ahmad and Umar Farooq - published in (c)The Pakistan Development Review 49:4 Part II (Winter 2010) pp. 903-923).
Pakistan's latest estimated population is 207,774,520 (excluding the regions of Azad Jammu and Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan). The agricultural sector sustains the livelihoods of 45 percent of Pakistan's population (FAO 2012). And today not only we are a water-stretched country but the worldwide climate change phenomenon is also affecting our agriculture sector very seriously.
It's critical, therefore, to note that growing enough food will be no small task in the years ahead, and that the kind of agriculture practised today - reliant on industrial-era concepts of land use and productivity - isn't poised, it is believed, to get us there. The reality is that we have to quickly and efficiently bring farming from the industrial age into the digital one.
With a predicted global population of 9.8 billion by 2050, the world is needed to figure out how to feed a much larger population, and fast. Studies show this could mean we need to grow as much as double the amount of food we do today, simply to avoid food security issues and mass social disruption. Already, more than 3 million children die worldwide each year because they don't get enough to eat. At the same time, climate change is making it harder to feed the world through conventional means - in fact, with world's current rate of crop yields; we'll only have enough food for half of that projected population. The way out of the looming agri-crises is said to be digitization of relevant agri-practices. And agricultural technology - from vertical farming to data science to farm drones - is the new hot thing in investor circles.
In an article Why the agtech boom isn't your typical tech disruption, published on 25 Feb 2019 in The Agenda Weekly from the World Economic Forum on March 1, 2019) Karn Manhas, Founder, Terramera has discussed these new digital technologies being increasingly used for boosting agricultural sector and improving universal food security:
The Investment Corporation of Dubai alone just dropped $203 million into agtech investments; another $200 million came from the Japanese holding behemoth SoftBank; and dedicated VC funds are zeroing in on the sector's potential.
In 2017, total investment was over $1.5 billion - a new record for the sector, and one that's setting the stage for explosive growth.
At its core, agtech - name of the new game - is about using advanced monitoring and data analysis to do more with less - to find ways to increase yields without burdening already overtaxed resources such as land and water.
Right now, a cross-section of technologies and disciplines - from sensors, artificial intelligence and big data to biotech and robotics - are being used by progressive startups to boost global food supplies. For example, Hortau systems is increasing watering efficiency through smart monitoring, which in turn increases plant yield. Phytech is optimizing crop production with its "Plant Internet of Things" - smart devices in fields that send simple colour-coded alerts to smartphones with recommendations and warnings. Meanwhile, the Israeli-based CropX uses hardware and software to measure soil moisture, conductivity and temperature, allowing farmers to save water.
The agtech market is expected to grow organically (indeed, exponentially) over time, giving early entrants an edge and access to an ever-increasing customer base.
Apart from the pressing need to keep the world properly fed, agtech addresses another crucial pain point: keeping farming viable for the next generation of people who grow our food.
Yet a yawning tech gap in farming has emerged in recent decades, with real-life consequences. In our approaches to land management, resource use, labour, transportation and more, we're firmly stuck in an outdated industrial model - emphasizing large-scale farms and massive output at all costs, while ignoring externalities from environmental impact to financial repercussions and human tolls.
Case in point: conventional farming is largely viable today because it's propped up with massive government subsidies. The US currently pays around $25 billion to farmers annually. But even with a cash infusion, it's still a tough go for today's farmers. The world's most important career has notoriously tight margins and is often a losing proposition. (Grapes, for example, bring in as little as $6 of profit per acre, and they are considered a higher-profit crop.) It's little wonder that young people aren't stepping into the industry anymore. (Britain is even facing a farmer shortage.)
For example, Cainthus, an AI facial recognition software for cows, allows small farmers to maintain larger herds and track the health of individual animals, right down to how much they've eaten each day and how much milk they've been given. Meanwhile, aWhere is a next-gen Farmers' Almanac, monitoring and forecasting the weather with pinpoint accuracy thanks to a global network of 1.4 million weather stations. Drones and robots from companies like Farmbot are helping fill the farm labour gap, with drag-and-drop interfaces that allow farmers to build sequences of actions for hardware or set repeating growing regimens. Blue River Technology, recently acquired by John Deere, uses cameras and AI to dole out herbicide more precisely as needed.
The digitization of agriculture is necessary simply to maintain the status quo. If we want to continue to go shopping - to continue filling our baskets with healthy and affordable food - we need to fundamentally rethink how we do agriculture. Behind the scenes, a radical shift is needed to retool our food systems and make the most of what we have for a growing population. Failing that, the average trip to buy food may soon be anything but.