Within an hour or so of the suicide attack on an Indian paramilitary convoy in Pulwama on Feb 14 in Indian Held Kashmir (IHK) that killed 40 Indian soldiers (many of them Sikhs), near hysterical Indian news anchors and Bharatiya Janata Party's (BJP's) hardcore cadres went berserk blaming Pakistan. Egged on by the jingoistic media a near war hysteria prevailed across a broad spectrum of North India, the South and the East were generally spared the paroxysm of anti-Muslim anti-Pakistan hatred and venom. Consequently the Indian Air Force (IAF) carried out a so-called "surgical air strike" on Feb 26 morning an alleged militant training camp in Balakot in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa(KP),without producing a shred of evidence Modi claimed eliminating "large numbers of militants(300)". Satellite imagery of the site as reported by the western media undermined India's claims. In reality the Indian jets had to jettison their payloads in a hurry in a forested area when Pakistan jet aircraft appeared, other than damaged a number of trees but causing no material damage or casualties.
After an emergency meeting of the National Security Council (NSC) Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi said that Pakistan "reserves the right to retaliate at a time and manner of its choosing". Locking on to six military targets in Nowshera sector in Jammu and Kashmir's Rajouri district in the crosshairs of their gun sights on Feb 27, Pakistani fighter aircraft sent a strong message bombing adjacent open spaces very deliberately. The head of the military's media wing, confirmed that "Pakistan had no choice but to respond to India's attack but avoided hitting military targets or causing casualties in the air strike because they did not want to escalate the crisis. "Reportedly senior Indian military commanders, including the Army Chief, was present at one of the targets. To add injury to insult when Indian jets chased the Pakistani aircraft returning from their mission, two were shot down and one of the pilots, Wing Commander Abhinandan, taken prisoner. Saved from certain death by soldiers of the Pakistan Army at the hands of angry villagers, he was soon after released by Pakistan as a unilateral gesture of peace, an act lauded by the international community.
Having promised a "jaw breaking" response to Pakistan, Indian PM Modi is now facing acute embarrassment in his own country. Congress leader Rahul Gandhi, speaking on behalf of 21 opposition parties, condemned the timing of the 'surgical strike', he labelled it as an election agenda for the Indian polls set to take place in April and May this year. Firing up anti-Muslim anti-Pakistan emotions is nothing new for Modi, "confronting" Muslims and Pakistanis good to solidify the Hindu votes in the election, that was his formula to get into power in the first place; anyone who says otherwise is a hypocrite. With issues like youth unemployment and rural distress having becoming problematic, the rabid cohort of Indian media channels - mostly acting as amplifiers of BJP's talking points, are helping BJP in this. Modi's waning popularity needed a drastic change of his fortunes. This was further accentuated by the BJP suffering several major defeats recently in Indian state elections in the Hindu heartland considered to be BJP bastions, Rajasthan in the west State and Chhattisgarh state in the Center. The air strike within Pakistan was initially met with broad approval, the mood soon shifted after Pakistan's retaliatory strike, the shooting down to the two Indian fighter jets, and doubts about the veracity of Indian "surgical strike" claims.
Modi's (and India's) reputation has taken a hit militarily, diplomatically and politically. In a hard-hitting analysis, the New York Times (NYT) wrote on March 3,"It was an inauspicious moment for a military (that) the United States is banking on to help keep an expanding China in check". Maria Abi-Habib went on, "If intense warfare broke out tomorrow, India could supply its troops with only 10 days of ammunition, according to government estimates. And 68% of the army's equipment is so old, it is officially considered 'vintage". The NYT said that after India's loss of a fighter jet last week, comparing with Pakistan's whose military is about half the size of India and receives only a quarter of the amount allocated for Indian defence funding, was very telling.
PM Imran Khan and his government have handled Modi's warmongering with restraint, displaying humility with grace and maturity. Restraint in the face on naked aggression and Imran Khan's peace overtures have been acknowledged by world leaders. Trying to isolate Pakistan diplomatically they ran into skeptical world opinion. However it is difficult to see uncle Modi backing off completely stuck in this "no win" position. Inveterate gamblers always believe that the next throw of the dice will change their luck. India will continue trying to harm Pakistan militarily and economically, through both kinetic and non-kinetic means. Pakistan cannot afford complacency in coping with Modi's madness, it must always remain on high state of alert.
(The writer is a defence and security analyst)
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