Brazil's 2019-20 center-south cane crop that starts in April will likely exceed the current season's, the first increase from one crop to another since 2015-16, according to data from consultancy Agroconsult released on Thursday.
Agroconsult expects the new crop to reach 575 million tonnes of cane from 570 million tonnes in 2018-19, but said current conditions may lead to as much as 590 million tonnes, if rains materialize in the coming days as expected. Cane fields in Brazil's center-south region, the world's largest cane-producing area, have been recovering well from dryer-than-normal weather in December and January.
Ample rains in February and March have already turned precipitation data to above-normal for the year in some regions, Agroconsult said. "Vegetation indexes are above than last season for this period, pointing to larger cane growth," the consultancy said in a report.
According to Eikon's Agriculture Weather Dashboard, the key Ribeirão Preto region in Brazil should get 120 millimeters (4.72 inches) of rain through March 29. Agroconsult sees sugar output growing to 28.8 million tonnes in 2019-20 from 26.5 million tonnes in 2018-19. Ethanol production is projected at 28.7 billion liters, down from 30.5 billion liters in 2018-19.
Fabio Meneghin, the consultancy's sugar and ethanol analyst, said the change for a bit more sugar and less ethanol reflects changes in prices for both products, with sugar values improving slightly. "But ethanol continues to give better returns for mills," he said.
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