The February 2019 Pulwama standoff and de-escalation are generally welcomed. Albeit both India and Pakistan have backed down from the crisis situation after skirmishes and heaved a sigh of relief the question remains: is there any positive streak emanating from the episode?
The two archrivals, India and Pakistan, have fought three wars and faced many instances of brinkmanship. But the Pulwama confrontation was fearsome and could have easily spun out of control with dire consequences. Fortunately, it de-escalated due to configuration of internal and external constraints, including Prime Minister Imran Khan's exercise of restraint and circumspection.
No matter some of opposition critics may be uncharitable in accusing him of compromising in the showdown; this was a sane policy in averting a destructive war. In fact, nothing could be more foolish to confrontation in hurtling towards a senseless clash.
India, on its part, backed down after alleged claims of killing 'Pakistani-sponsored terrorists' in Occupied Kashmir. Pakistan retaliated with force on its own territory by downing two Indian aircraft when Indian aircraft violated the LoC. So, it was a measured response and taking no chances.
Some hawkish elements in Pakistan gloated over downing of Indian aircraft and not cowing down to Indian bully tactics. Some determinists still think that a nuclear clash between India and Pakistan could be possible due to breakdown of deterrence either through, miscommunication, technical fault, a rash commander or aggressive recklessness by either side.
However Pakistan decided in fitness of things to douse the situation and wisely disbanded Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) and other militant groups. In fact, this was long overdue as Pakistan was always castigated for keeping the terrorist pipeline open.
Without claiming any pressure from India, Pakistan implicitly realised that some of the militant groups were still roaming freely and acting like loose cannons and could drag the country in the trouble waters.
The charge against Pakistan on nurturing, mollycoddling and abetting these groups has not ceased. That it is allegedly relying on some proxy groups in Iran and Afghanistan lends some credence in the world community despite vociferous denials.
The Kashmir insurgency is authentic and homegrown like Palestine but is abetted by PM Modi's repressive and sanguine war in Kashmir. Yet the stigma of Pulwama may stick and take time to erase unless Pakistan makes dramatic and drastic turn away from its neighbourly policies.
However lately Pakistan, while claiming protection of its territory is seeking evidence and making repeated overtures for peace. Notwithstanding pragmatism shown the ultimate proof lies in dealing effectively with militants groups flouting state authority and sabotaging peace efforts.
This springs from some considerations. First, proxy wars do not lead to any accretion of strength. As nuclear powers and large standing armies we do not need force multipliers; rather, the proxy forces are prone to gather strength and challenge state forces. Further, Chinese economic investments are making us prioritize economic development, good governance and amicable neighborly policy. Besides, Saudi and UAE funds provide more encouragement for economic development and both are loath to see South Asia avoid a military clash.
We should not begrudge our Gulf friends their right to economic cooperation with India - an important player in South Asia. Moreover, we have seen the sad plight of many ME countries which have allowed themselves to fight destructive bloody wars.
The Post-Pulwama events signal Pakistan's desire for peace. It seems the military leadership and political leadership have come around to the view of futility and myopia of previous policies.
We must continue to support Kashmir moral cause. Forming two-third of youth population the Kashmiri youth need to be co-opted to decide their future. Pakistan has to be a role model for them should they decide to join.
It is a Hobbesian world: No country would easily relent giving away its territory regardless of UN resolutions self-determination. United Pakistan fought for retaining East Pakistan at all costs. Russia is wrangling over the chain of tiny Kuerile islands with Japan and China is contesting sovereignty over atolls with many SE nations in South China Sea. Likewise, India as a big country would be reluctant to eschew claims to occupied Kashmir. One can hardly speculate about the future but realistic proposal is for India to grant autonomy and self- government as China did in case of Macao and Hong Kong.
In the event of India-Pak hostilities continuing Pakistan will not be a conducive destination for domestic and foreign investment. After successfully overcoming militancy in last 30 years it needs to desperately concentrate on economic development and building of soft power as South Asia has seen much of continued strife.
Pakistani armed forces have done a good job but much more needs to be done, there is no need be unnecessary whipping of jingoistic sentiments. Nuclear umbrella should not mean stoking instability but inducing cooperation and development.
India is in a face-saving mode; elections are coming and cross-border firing may continue to appease its public and maintain pressure on Pakistan. We need to give a measured and balanced response and no more.
What if these attacks continue and can Pakistan bridle own militant groups to indulge in any future adventure to act as spoilers, the moment they see India-Pak rapprochement. For this, NAP has to be revised and strengthened and holistic plan of police, educational and cultural policies have to be reframed. Forthcoming FATF meeting is going to be crucial test for Pakistan.
Kashmir is an issue dear to Pakistanis but much dearer is Pakistan's integrity and survival. Power and use of force are the state's prerogative only and militant outfits not only negate the state writ but project a chaotic lawless scene.
Still, underground militant cells remain with mindsets intact, which cry for
robust, coordinated and determined civil-military co-operation.
May be, after the Indian April elections Modi government may mellow down. But predictions are that BJP would still win elections despite some dilution of strength. So the next few months are crucial.
India too ought to learn lessons as Kashmiri cause is an indigenous struggle. In addition, it has learnt the weakness of its armed forces and underestimation of Pakistan's will as a united nation. The Modi ill-adventure has ironically united the Pakistani nation.
PM Imran Khan is an ardent admirer of Nelson Mandela who stood for peace and reconciliation. However it must not be assumed that India's employment of hybrid warfare would cease soon. But one only hopes that the simmering Kashmir conflict does not erupt into a conflagration - wreaking colossal destruction on both sides. Needless to reiterate, neither of the two nations can afford a suicidal nuclear exchange by following policies of brinkmanship in pursuit of national egos.
(The writer is Visiting Faculty, Department of Defence and Strategic Studies, Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad; former Adviser COMSATS and ex-President, Islamabad Policy Research Institute)
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