Worries over the health of the global economy weighed on most Asian currencies on Monday, but the Thai baht gained ahead of the results of the country's first election since a 2014 coup. The spread between 3-month US Treasury bills and 10-year note yields inverted on Friday for the first time since 2007.
Historically, an inverted yield curve - where long-term rates fall below short-term - has signalled an upcoming recession. The concerns manifested into sharp losses across equity markets in Asia, but analysts were cautious. "The market is probably still somewhat undecided on the prospects for the global economy," said Julian Wee, Investment Strategist at Credit Suisse based in Singapore.
"The curve inversion is nascent and might yet prove to be brief, so we would not at this juncture base our projections too heavily on that phenomenon."
Indonesia's rupiah and the Indian rupee fell 0.4 percent and 0.2 percent, respectively, with both countries facing key general elections that start next month.
South Korea's won was the worst performer of the day, 0.5 percent weaker against the dollar at 1,135.3. Meanwhile, the Singapore dollar traded sideways for much of the morning. Analysts are not expecting headline inflation due later on Monday to result in policy changes by the Monetary Authority of Singapore at its next meeting in April.
"Against a weaker global growth outlook, Asia's export-led currencies - the South Korean won and the Singapore dollar - should be trading on the soft side this week," DBS said in a note.
While saying recession fears were warranted, DBS guarded against the downside risks, citing the Fed's dovish pivot as a sign that their priority will be to cushion the slowdown risks. The Thai baht strengthened 0.3 percent to 31.58 per US dollar, its highest in nearly one month, after a peaceful general election on Sunday. Partial results showed a pro-army party was ahead of anti-junta parties hoping to make a comeback.
Thailand has seen a large exodus of foreign investment in the lead up to the election, which has seen the baht give up some of its strong gains early this year. However, the unit still remains the regions best performer so far in 2019, up over 3 percent.
A Thailand-based trader who did not wish to be identified said there was an increase in capital inflows from offshore players on Monday. "With the election ending general drama-free and violence-free, investors who had sat out on election concerns are slowly returning to the market," analysts wrote in a Maybank note. However, Thai stocks dropped about 1 percent, with analysts linking Monday's decline in global equities with the benchmark's losses.
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