Broad government - IMF agreement still elusive?

The two-day discussions with Pakistani authorities focused on recent economic developments and prospects for the country in the context of ongoing discussions toward a Fund-supported programme. This statement was uploaded on the International Monetary Fund (IMF) website at the conclusion of the visit by the IMF mission chief for Pakistan, Ernesto Ramirez-Rigo, who visited Islamabad and Karachi from March 26-27, for introductory meetings with the authorities.
However, the statement lacks details giving rise to intense speculation in the federal capital that a broad agreement was not reached on a new programme which has been under negotiations since November 2018. The recent claim of Finance Minister Asad Umar about narrowing of the gap between the government and IMF on the reform agenda for the next programme is not reflected in the Fund statement. Economists maintain that failure to curtail the budget deficit with revenue generation declining in absolute terms during the first seven months of the current fiscal year and current expenditure rising by more than was budgeted would be a major concern for the Fund which would likely insist on politically extremely challenging prior programme corrective measures for the current fiscal year.
The rupee value, the IMF has repeatedly stated, remains over valued in spite of the rupee depreciation of more than 35 percent with the government maintaining that equilibrium has been reached. According to the Fund statement, Ramirez-Rigo assumed Pakistan mission chief responsibilities earlier this month. This was his first visit to the country.
The IMF statement adds: "In Islamabad, Ramirez-Rigo met with the Minister of Finance, Asad Umar, the Minister of Commerce, Razzak Dawood, the Minister of Power, Omer Ayub, the State Minister for Revenues Hammad Azhar, and several government senior officials, including the Finance Secretary, Younus Dagha, the Chairman of the Federal Board of Revenues, Jehanzeb Khan, and the Advisor to the Prime Minister on Institutional Reforms and Austerity, Ishrat Hussain. In Karachi, he met with the Governor of the State Bank of Pakistan Tariq Bajwa and other senior officials from the State Bank of Pakistan. Discussions focused on recent economic developments and prospects for Pakistan in the context of ongoing discussions toward an IMF-supported program.