The US-Pak bilateral may be turning the corner. Much of 2018 was marked by Twitter warfare. But 2019 started on a good note. First, the US officials reportedly suggested that a significant withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan was in the works – it potentially strengthens Pakistan’s hand. Then, Trump, in his usual berating style, expressed his desire to meet “folks” from Pakistan – presumably referring to PM Khan.
Personal relationships matter. And the Pakistani side is investing. It was obvious in the way Lindsey Graham, the US Senator famous for his hawkish views and casual comments in a southern drawl, was greeted & feted in Islamabad last week. The Republican had opposed Trump during the 2016 presidential campaign but has lately become a close Trump ally following the death of his mentor Senator McCain.
The fact that Trump grounded House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s flight to Afghanistan over shutdown politics but let Lindsey fly to the region and meet Pakistani leadership is significant. By the end of the tour, Lindsey was reportedly ‘gushing’ about his interactions with the Pakistani leadership. If you want to see how to build a border wall, then come and visit Pakistan, he was quoted as saying. Keen US observers will see that as a nod to Trump’s obsession with building a border wall.
Lindsey wants a Trump-Khan sit-down soon. Efforts are already underway to stage such a meet-up. Lindsey, who described Khan as an “agent of change” he was looking for, might also put in a good word. It’s been two years that Trump is President but he has not officially met any of the three Pakistani premiers during this time. If Khan and Trump met, they might hit it off over stories about how the two outsiders, despite their Casanova lifestyles and simplistic policy sound-bites, made it to the top.
What the US wants is a swift withdrawal that doesn’t turn Afghanistan back twenty years into the militant haven it was when 9/11 occurred. As the 2020 campaign kick-starts later this year, Trump strategists should want Afghanistan to at least stay quiet in the news. Then there are concerns that Pakistan has grown too close to China, which the US establishment now identifies as one of their primary adversaries alongside Russia.
Since Khan took office, the Pakistani state has made a conscious effort to placate the US on both counts. Through dollar assistance (and potential investments) from its Gulf allies, Pakistan is trying to diversify regional interests, especially in Gwadar. As for talks, parleys between US and Taliban interlocutors are being held as a routine – thanks, in part, to Pakistan’s stance on having peace and quiet next door.
It is unclear if incremental US assistance will flow as a result of the goodwill generated thus far. Official US aid has reduced to a trickle in the recent years. It’s not specific to Pakistan, however, as America under Trump is reducing its aid to a number of countries. But Trump doesn’t tire of reminding the American public that it is Trump who “ended” the aid to Pakistan. As Pakistan cooperates, Trump may draw conclusion that the strategy of zero carrot and all stick (read IMF & FATF) is working.
Beyond regional intermediation, Pakistan has little to offer to Transactional Trump in the way other countries have done through buying more of US goods and loading up on American weapons. Any bonhomie created in the future through a Trump-Khan summit may not last more than a few months.
Perhaps the key is to deepen economic relationship – something also pointed out by Lindsey – so that US companies are also welcome to invest in and capitalize on the 200-million-strong market in Pakistan.
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