Less than a year in power, there are significant changes in the federal cabinet, and now the majority of advisors around the PM are outsiders. The change became necessary as the elected representatives at key positions could not perform up to the mark, in a very difficult situation.
In the process, the decision making, especially on economy and energy, now lies with business elite, and the fear is that conflict of interest may drive policymaking. The economic advisory board has members who are running their own businesses or they are consultant to businesses which are going to be affected by their decisions. The story of special assistants on energy is not any different.
This writer is not questioning the capability or integrity of these advisors, but in a good system, there should be checks and balances to safeguard interest of public at large. In response to perceived inability of cabinet, the PM brought old tested advisors to smoothen things. However, by doing so, the core of the party popularity is being undermined.
Imran became relevant for elite groups within the country, based on the urban popularity, he gained during his political struggle for over a decade. Slowly and gradually, electables joined him, as they could see him becoming PM. The champions of status quo joined him as either they became irrelevant in their original party or they were in search of a party other than PPP or PML-N.
The overall system supported Imran in the last year or two - ranging from military establishment to business groups in Karachi to rural electable groups. In the past decade or two, a few new politicians emerged on the scene who subscribed to party's original philosophy. Unfortunately, they lack experience and political maturity to handle a difficult economic situation.
The captain's frustration led him to bring a new team of technocrats where higher weight is given to the capability and ability to execute, over the contribution to the party and its ideology. The diehard workers and supporters of the party who are with PTI for long have openly, in large numbers, questioned Imran's decisions.
Now, with PTI at centre and in two and a half provinces, the delivery on what Khan professed should be happening. With outsider technocrats at the helm, the trust of voters and workers may diminish, especially, if the conflict of interest becomes a genuine issue. For instance, the upcoming amnesty scheme may let the ill gotten money to be whitened without much gain to the public at large, and the honest tax payer may get disgruntled in the process.
The problem is that, given the precarious economic conditions, short-term gains are becoming important for the PM. The core of the party may not care much about short-term results as long as future direction is right. However, the seasonal supporters or party members are more keen on smoothening the economic happenings in the short to medium term. There is a conflict between ideologists and benefactors.
The economy may not come out of the woods anytime soon, as the IMF is coming up with tough conditionalities. The budget will be a litmus test as Rs600 billion or so new taxes are to be imposed with around 80 percent of them being indirect - having higher impact on the most vulnerable segment. With thin majority, a little bit of numbers here or there, may not let the budget pass.
Imran may have to make more compromises to run through this difficult economic situation. The position in Punjab is shaky, as the Buzdar strategy is not working at all, and it's becoming difficult to change him as the majority in Punjab is even thinner. The captain may make more compromises in months to come and that may sway the core of the party further away.
Khan has to come up with a strategy to not let the party slip from his hands. The need is to give stake to those members who subscribe to party ideology to keep urban mass support intact. If the urban youth moves away, the captain will be left with the only option to make more compromises with status quo politicians.
He has to demonstrate that the PTI ideology is not captured. He has to give the signal that changes are made purely on the basis of competence. He has to utilize his key people. Asad Umar is one important person which he should not let go wasted. He proved not to be the optimal choice for finance ministry, but he can fit in even bigger shoes in terms of his standing within the party.
Asad has a reputation of being an intelligent, honest and upright person. One of the rumours behind his exit is that he stood against the business elite on amnesty scheme and subsidies to cartels. But he proved to be too lenient on another business elite - Pakistan Business Council.
Without delving into the debate of his allegiances, the need is to use him optimally for two reasons - not wasting a good resource and more importantly to keep party foundations intact. He should be given a role of a watch dog - a senior minister or party General Secretary or any other name. He should be given a position to have a check on outside advisors to not let them seek rent by tuning the policies in their favour, if they intend to do so.
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