The federal government has considered the option to close one shift of industrial sector during Ramazan aimed at ensuring power supply at the time of Sahar, Iftar and Taraweigh, well-informed sources told Business Recorder.
This proposal came under discussion at the meeting of Cabinet Committee on Energy (CCoE) on April 18, 2019. The federal cabinet which is scheduled to meet on Tuesday (today) will consider this proposal. The government is also likely to release Rs 30 billion to Pakistan State Oil (PSO) to ensure furnace oil supply in summer.
The sources said load management plan for Ramazan is likely to begin from May 6, 2019. Sahar, Iftar and Taraweih are the peak demand times for electricity; therefore a shortfall between demand and supply will be managed through load shedding on higher losses feeders.
The tentative demand and supply position of electricity during Ramazan(May 6-31) will be as follows: slab -1( 0200 to 0600 hrs, maximum demand 22,236 MW-average demand 19,307MW-policy load management-0, final demand- 19,307MW ;(ii) slab-2 (rest of the day or 0600 to 1800 hrs) maximum demand 25,663 MW, average demand- 21,067MW, policy load management- 2,500MW , final demand 18,567 MW ;slab-3 ( Iftar + Taraweih 1800 to 2300 hrs) maximum demand- 24,595MW, average demand- 21,031MW, policy load management-0, final demand- 21,031 MW and ;(slab-4 rest of the day 2300 to 0200 hrs, maximum demand-23,348MW, average demand-20,125MW, policy load management-25,00MW and final demand 17,625MW.
According to sources, available generation as per dispatch plan will be as follows: (slab-i) 18,747 MW;(slab-ii) 20,026MW;(slab-iii) 20,063MW and ;(slab-iv) 18,894MW. This implies there will be shortfall of 560MW during 0200 to 0600 hrs, 1458MW surplus from or 0600 to 1800 hrs, 968MW shortfall from1800 to 2300 hrs whereas 1,269MW surplus from 2300 to 0200 hrs.
However, during June 1-04, 2019, there will be shortfall of 2,500MW from 0600 to 1800 hrs and 2300 to 0200 hours. However, if all plants including Gencos are made available then there will be no load shedding.
The meeting was apprised about the proposed load management plan, which is based on certain assumptions which are: (i) supply of RLNG to all plants based on RLNG as per 850MW MMCFD plan;(ii) hydel generation remains available; (iii) no un-expected tripping in plants; (iv) furnace oil availability to all furnace oil plants;(v) furnace oil availability for Hubco and Muzaffargarh as stock maintenance for use in emergency; and (vi) Ministry of Industries and Production will make additional 100 MMCFD available for use in power sector during the months of May and June, 2019.
The sources further stated that proposed load management also includes option of closing one shift of industrial sector at night to ensure uninterrupted supply of electricity to domestic consumers. It was observed that in the past, there was longer duration of load shedding in rural areas as compared to urban areas which created discrimination in urban and rural areas while implementing load management plan. In both areas, load shedding would not be carried out during Iftar and Sahar as demand for power during these hours increases in major cities.
Power Division informed that there are 0-10 percentage ATC (Aggregate Technical and Commercial) loss beyond technical losses on 5,156 feeders, 10 to 20 percentage on 905 feeders, 20 to 30 percentage on 423 feeders, 30 to 40 percentage on 268 feeders, 40 to 60 percentage on 473 feeders, 60 to 80 percentage on 440 percentage and above 80 percentage on 1,044 feeders
After detailed discussion, the CCoE noted the position presented by Power Division regarding plan to avoid load shedding during Ramzan and directed the Power Division to ensure maximum generation during Ramzan through uninterrupted supply of requisite fuel to power plants. It was also decided that no load shedding will be carried out during Sahar and Iftar/Taraweigh.
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