The country''s exports are said to have posted zero growth in April 2019 as compared to the corresponding month of 2018. The provisional foreign trade figures show that exports stood at $ 2.127 billion in April 2019, the same figure that was achieved during the PML (N) government in April 2018. However, imports declined from 5.079 billion in April 2018 to $ 4.540 billion in April 2019, showing a decrease of 10.26 percent. Trade deficit declined by 18.26 per cent - from $ 2.952 billion in April 2019 to $ 2.413 billion in April 2018.
According to provisional statistics, exports have shown a growth of just 0.10 per cent during the first 10 months (July-April 2018-19) to $ 19.210 billion from $ 19.191 billion in July-April, 2017-18. However, imports have posted a negative growth of 8.24 per cent from $ 49.360 billion to $ 45.295 billion, showing a decline of $ 4.065 billion. The figures indicate that the country''s trade deficit has declined by 13.54 percent - from $ 30.169 billion during the first ten months of 2017-18 as compared to $ 26.085 billion in the same period 2018-19.
Analysts argue that lower domestic consumption led to diversion of domestic stocks to exports and even though it reflected a short term sharp rise in exports it may not be sustainable in the long term. Trade experts who are closely watching and analyzing trade figures maintain that May 2019 would also be a bad month while June may show a visible increase.
"March, April, May of 2018 were months of high growth. The export figure was over $ 2 billion every month in these months," said one the trade experts while talking to Business Recorder. But he added that contractionary monetary policy is hitting business activities in general and exports in particular. For example cement sector was experiencing economies of scales due to domestic sales but when domestic sales declined after 9 years of growth in January 2019, cement prices rose.
He cited two major reasons for cement''s domestic sales/consumption fall: (i) a cut in PSDP (reduced government spending); and (ii) an unusually long rainy season that delayed construction activities as well as completion of CPEC phase which was all about infrastructure development (and power projects). He further stated that as GDP and FDI are on the decline it is good that exports are not falling, adding that if exporters get a good deal in the coming budget (especially regarding tariffs) it would slightly push the exports up. When contacted an official of the Commerce Division stated that personally he did not regard trade figures as bad as there is a visible recession in Pakistan''s export market and economic stabilization policies are ongoing.
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