The post-Modi possibilities

Modi once again. The possibility of a slogan became a reality. And it was expected. What was not expected was the landslide victory of BJP. Many analysts had felt that Modi's right wing stance, his poor performance on agriculture and jobs and the victimization of minorities will slim his margin considerably. The opposite happened. The success of Modi's campaign is going to be analyzed for a long time but the fact remains that Modi has come back with a big political bang and power. This bodes all sorts of tidings for the Indian domestic politics and its foreign policy. Most analysts feel and fear that the success of right wing stance will push India even further away from its fading secularism.
Modi's victory is significant in many ways. Firstly, it reinforces the global wave of right wing leadership. Post Trump era and Brexit have created a model of global discontent with the existing system. There is a rebellion against globalization that has created a very unequal world and that rebellion has been manifesting in rejecting globalization for localization through nationalism. The resentment form a large majority that has faced joblessness and inequality has taken the shape of closing minds and doors to outsiders who may be of different origin or religion. Australia and Italy are other countries which are seeing a resurgence of nationalistic voter trends.
India's elections are an interesting study. Unlike the west where jobs and employment have become a sore point for voters to reject foreign migrants etc, Indian voters chose to ignore these economic realities. Modi had failed to create the jobs he promised for youth. Poor farmers also felt let down. These were the two points on which the opposition was running their campaign. Modi was clever to realize that he could not defend this non-performance and decided to make these economic issues irrelevant and secondary for the voter. His campaign became a presidential race where he made National Security the biggest issue, over-riding all other issues. He presented a logic that was unbeatable, ie., who can make India secure and communicated it through the "Chowkidar" campaign theme. For most Indians this nationalism was irrefutable. Modi contrasted well with Rahul's reluctant, dynastic and weak political image and thus won a landslide victory.
The questions are: Will Modi continue with this victory theme? Will Modi show some relent in his attitude in foreign policy especially towards Pakistan? Will Modi keep his anti-secular approach despite winning a comfortable majority? The answer is normally that only time will tell. However some analysis can be done based on the previous history and personality of Narendra Modi. As far as the victory theme is concerned Modi is most likely to stretch it till he can. Economy always takes time to spur up and jobs are not something that can be created on order. Thus the likelihood is that to buy time Modi will keep the national security rhetoric up till he can. This also has a bearing towards India's relationship with Pakistan.
Many analysts felt that Congress being secular in its approach would have presented a better opportunity for dialogue with Pakistan. However, an examination of both BJP and Congress party manifestos shows little change. While BJP did not mention a particular foreign policy, Congress manifesto clearly outlined "isolation of Pakistan as a center piece of their Pakistan policy with unilateral, limited military action against "terror groups" inside Pakistan when needed". However, under Modi even though unwritten, the policy that has won him a landslide would logically continue. The Pakistani Prime Minister was quick to congratulate PM Modi reiterating the desire for peace and prosperity in the region. PM Modi was quick to respond and thank but we all know these are just standard operating procedures.
That there will be a re-start of the communication is evident. The meeting between Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi and Sushma Swaraj at Bishkek was an indicator of that. She did not walk out or avoid the Pakistani Foreign Minister, and informal sweets were exchanged to reduce the bitterness prevailing in the recent past. PM Modi decided not to include the Pakistani PM in the inauguration invite list. A meeting, nevertheless, is likely on the sidelines at Bishkek on 13th-14th of June. The initial indicators are all pointing to a historical pattern where India will just do the bare minimum to keep up with international protocol but will not have a meaningful dialogue to resolve pending issues especially Kashmir.
What are Pakistan's options to pre-emptively neutralize a stronger Modi narrative against Pakistan? This has been and will be a huge challenge. India has market might economically and a politically foil prop up ability against China. Under these circumstances Pakistan can adopt a three pronged approach:
1. On the economic front Pakistan has to counter the economic scale of India with first of all putting its house in order and ensure sustainability in the next two years. In this period an all out push on the international diplomacy is required. China, CPEC and BRI are main collective market attractions for investors being lured to Pakistan and Pakistan needs to position itself as the gateway to all these roads and corridors.
2. Politically Pakistan needs to take initiatives of leading in key regional alliances. OIC summit where the Middle East conflicts are being discussed is a forum where Pakistan has acted as the unity ambassador who can mediate between different factions. Similarly, Pakistan needs to look into Russia, Central Asia as supports for its international resolutions.
3. Pakistan needs to build its no-tolerance for terrorism narrative strongly. With FATF actions being taken by the government, there are hopes that Pakistan may be able to avoid a placement in the black list and eventually get out of the grey list. All these actions need to be communicated through the right channels to the international influencers.
These are challenging moments in a very fragmented international relations world. Pakistan can emerge favourably if a designed International Relations strategy is in place. The narrative during the Balakot incident of Pakistan being a peace ambassador needs to be propagated with the right diplomacy, lobbying, communication, media and social media tools. As they say, in every adversity lies an opportunity.
(The writer can be reached at [email protected])