Global coffee consumption in set to swell to a new record while production is expected to drop 3.1% to 169.1 million 60-kg bags as Brazil enters the off-year in its production cycle, the US US Department of Agriculture (USDA) on Friday.
While worldwide consumption is set to rise 2.5% to a record-high 167.9 million bags, global imports are only set to increase
0.1% as demand gets met through a drawdown in stockpiles, the USDA said in its biannual report.
The USDA forecasts global ending stocks at 33.5 million bags, compared to 36.4 million bags in 2018/19, with the drawdowns particularly steep in Brazil, Indonesia, and the European Union.
These stockpiles counterweigh the expected decline in global production, led by a decline out of top-grower Brazil, where output is seen at 59.3 million bags compared to record-high production of 64.8 million bags in 2018/19. Arabica production in Brazil is seen falling to 41 million bags from 48 million bags as the crop enters its off-year in its biennial cycle. The forecast for Colombian production is unchanged at 14.3 million bags, while output from Central America and Mexico is also seen steady at 19.1 million bags. Meanwhile, production in Vietnam, the world's top robusta producer, was forecast to climb 100,000 bags to a record 30.5 million bags.
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