Aussie, kiwi steady

The Australian and New Zealand dollars held still on Friday ahead of data on US payrolls that could shake up expectations for how sharply the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates this month. The Aussie was a shade firmer at $0.7028 and comfortably above the week's $0.6956 trough. It also maintained last week's 1.4% gain, but needed to clear resistance around $0.7050 to extend the rally. The kiwi had lost a little ground on the week to stand at $0.6686, though that remained well above recent seven-month lows of $0.6482.
Both currencies have found support as investors priced in ever more aggressive easing from the Fed. Currently futures are fully priced for a quarter-point cut this month, with a 25% chance of a half-point move. That probability could change markedly depending on what the June job figures show. Forecasts are for a rise of 153,000, with unemployment steady at 3.6%. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will have his own chance to shape expectations when he testifies to Congress on July 10/11.
"Powell's testimony is likely to be key for the Aussie," said Westpac FX analyst Sean Callow. "If he indicates that a cut in July is doubtful, the Aussie recovery should be snuffed out." "But if Powell offers enough to leave markets pricing more than two rate cuts by year-end, AUD/USD may be able to probe above $0.7100." Having already cut its rates in both June and July, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is thought likely to stay on the sidelines for a few months.
Futures imply a 50% chance of an easing by October, rising to more than 90% by year end. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is thought highly likely to cut at its next meeting on Aug. 7, especially if the Fed does go this month. Two-year bond yields are already far below the 1.5% cash rate at 1.15%, having dived 55 basis points so far this year. Australian bond futures were ending the week on a firm note with the three-year contract up a couple of ticks for the week at 99.100 and only just off all-time highs. Yields on 10-year notes were down 4 basis points for the week at 1.283%.