Sindh's debt shoots up by Rs 70 billion owing to devaluation of PKR

The depreciation of Pakistan rupee against dollar increased the debt of Sindh province by approximately Rs 70 billion from Rs 296 billion to Rs 366 billion. International Development Association (IDA)/World Bank remains lender of 59 percent to Sindh, Asian Development Bank (ADB) 34 percent, Federal Government 4 percent, Government of Japan 3 percent and others 0.3 percent. The figures are in accordance with the available data till December 31, 2018, official sources told Business Recorder.
They anticipated that debt would further go higher when data would be complied on the basis of present value of PKR against US dollar. According to Debt Sustainability Analysis of Sindh government for financial year 2018-19, the share of external loans is 96.4 percent of total debt portfolio, which could be termed highly exposed to exchange rate risk.
The share of debt with fixed-interest rates is 84 percent of total debt, which is high and indicates low risk relatively, when measuring its vulnerability towards interest-rate risk. Average time to maturity for complete debt portfolio is 11.8 years, which shows high debt portfolio average maturity period and indicates low exposure to re-financing risk.
Weighted average interest rate (WAIR) for domestic loan is 11.8 percent which is relatively high as compared to external portfolio WAIR for 1.59 percent only, due to old domestic loans before year 2000, on very high rates. Total WAIR for entire portfolio is 2 percent. On the other hand, public debt stock practically remained stable between June-2014 and June-2018, reaching an average of 40 percent of total revenues.
Total revenues increased from 2.2 percent of federal GDP in 2013-14 to 2.5 percent of federal GDP in 2017-18, of which 24 percent was generated by province's own revenues, mainly GST on services collection and 76 percent by federal transfers. Thus, the share of provincial own revenues in total revenues grew from 18 percent in 2013-14 to 25 percent in 2017-18, showing an increase in fiscal autonomy during this period.
Nevertheless, federal transfers are still significant: three quarter of 2018-19 total revenues was explained by divisible pool, straight transfers, grants, etc., 12.7 percent by GST on service, 5.9 percent by Sindh Development and Maintenance of Infrastructure, 3.9 percent by other tax revenues and 2 percent by non-tax revenues. The weight of provincial direct taxes on property, vehicle and capital value in total revenues is low, reaching an annual average of 2 percent only of total revenues.