Speculators' net long dollar position rose for the first time in seven weeks, according to calculations by Reuters and US Commodity Futures Trading Commission data released on Friday. The value of the net long dollar position was $15.48 billion in the week ended July 9, compared with $14.66 billion in the previous week. The US speculative community has been net long dollars since mid-July last year.
US dollar positioning was derived from net contracts of International Monetary Market speculators in the Japanese yen, euro, British pound, Swiss franc and Canadian and Australian dollars. In a broader measure of dollar positioning that includes net contracts on the New Zealand dollar, Mexican peso, Brazilian real and Russian ruble, the greenback posted a net long position of $12.377 billion in the week ended July 9, compared with $12.269 billion the previous week. The dollar has been on a downtrend since May, when the Federal Reserve pivoted toward a dovish stance amid global trade uncertainty and concerns about the US economic outlook.
Since May 23, the dollar index has fallen 1.6%. Five months prior to that, the dollar had risen 3.5%. The Fed's concerns on trade and economy culminated in a two-day testimony by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, who signalled a rate cut at its July meeting.
An increase in dollar longs this week, however, could be explained by a stronger-than-expected US nonfarm payrolls report last week, which suggested the Fed, will still cut interest rates later this month, but not by 50 basis points.
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