In politics one week is long. In geo-politics one year is short. It only seems yesterday that a fierce twitter war between President Trump and Prime Minister Imran Khan seemed to have put the US-Pak relationship on a cease talk ground. But a few months later we are expecting a meeting between the two leaders in a much more conducive and reconciliatory ground. Many experts feel that not much will come out of the visit as aid, trade and cooperation have already been laid down for Pakistan. They may be right. However given the timing, situation and position this visit's symbolic value is much more than just obtaining bilateral benefits.
Pakistan and US are sometimes termed as "Frenemies". The friendly hostility has sometimes become sweet and sometimes turned sour. Traditionally, Pakistan has been an ally for US intervention in the region. From the era of SEATO (South-East Asia Treaty Organization) and CENTO (Central Treaty Organization) the alliance has been steady. The closeness increased in 1978 Saur Revolution in Afghanistan and the military intervention by the then Soviet Union in December 1979. This brought US blessings for Pakistani dollar economy but ruined Pak-Afghan relations. The next strengthening of relations happened in the next war in Afghanistan. This time by US itself. Pakistan was awarded the "status of a non-Nato ally" of the United States following the 9/11 terrorist attacks. A war that has destroyed Afghanistan, damaged Pakistan and defeated all regional objectives of America.
While America was becoming cozier with India it was also becoming more dismissive towards Pakistan. Drone attacks, aid cut offs, non-payment of funds was considered an entitlement. The "Do more" mantra was on auto response for Pakistan. Trump's arrival saw explosive comments on Twitter. Pakistan's foreign policy vacuum for almost four years when no foreign minister was appointed from 2013 to 2017 helped US develop a very one-sided narrative fed by India and helped by growing distrust in the American think tanks. Most American politicians felt that the aid money was not being spent by the government according to the aid conditionalities.
In this context of the sourness of the relationship, another demeaning Trump tweet was unsurprising. Thus on 19th November 2018 when President Trump tweeted that "We no longer pay Pakistan $ Billions because they take our money and do nothing", an empty verbal condemnation which meant nothing was expected from the Foreign Office of Pakistan. However not just US but the Pakistanis were in for a surprise. In came a tweet from the Prime Minister of Pakistan saying "Trump's false assumptions add insult to injury. Pak has suffered in US WoT in terms of lives lost and destabilization and economic cost....Pak has suffered enough....Now we will do what is best for our people and our interest". There was a muted silence in America and almost an aghast reaction in the traditional foreign policy experts corridor expecting a series of repercussions on this "daring immaturity" as they called it of the Prime Minister.
Against all pundits' warnings Trump did not respond. They got the message. This government was not going to "Do more" if it did not suit them. With American stay in Afghanistan becoming more disastrous by the day and with their head on with Iran, they needed Pakistan. That is why the heat has eased off keeping in view Pakistan's strategic role in dialogue and negotiations with Taliban. In this scenario the oncoming visit of the Prime Minister is of great importance. Talks of resetting the relationship have been taking rounds but the reset has to be more balanced and mutually beneficial. This being an initial meeting between the leadership of two states is unlikely to be all encompassing but will be a crucial signal to the rest of the world of Pakistan's growing stature in the region. There is 3-pronged approach required to reduce trust deficit between the two countries:
1. Build upon common objectives- On the face of it Pakistan and US have hardly any common interests but regionally and personally some commonalities can be linked to develop a bridge of confidence and trust. Both President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Imran Khan have won elections on anti-war rhetoric. Donald Trump in his election campaign said that war in Afghanistan was a mistake and he would ensure American forces withdraw from there. Prime Minister Imran Khan has in the past and in his elections campaign promised that Pakistan would never be involved in wars in other countries. That is the opportunity to build Pak-US relations.
2. Project Pakistan's efforts to eliminate terrorism- Pakistan as part of National Action Plan and FATF has made serious efforts on crackdown on many banned outfits. Already these efforts have borne some fruits. Recently top 13 leaders of the banned Jamaatud Dawa (JuD), including its chief Hafiz Saeed and Naib Emir Abdul Rehman Makki, were booked in nearly two dozen cases for terror financing and money laundering under the Anti-Terrorism Act, 1997. The US has also taken some unique measures on terrorist organization playing havoc in Baluchistan. The US State Department designated the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) as a global terrorist group, paving the way for similar actions by the United Nations and other states. These efforts need to be highlighted during these trips to gain support for FATF assessment in September and also to promote Pakistan's image of serious anti-terrorism actions for peace and security of the region.
3. Market Pakistan's Youth Bulge- With the aging population in US, Pakistan's baby boom and youth bulge have always been attractive. McDonald's and Coke have done better in Pakistan than many other markets in the region. Time for Pakistan to meet not just the food giants in US but the IT bigwigs to present Pakistan as a natural substitute for the more costly markets of India and South East Asia. The Pakistani diaspora can act as the connect points to not just invest in the country but to act as corporate matchmakers and confidence builders between Pakistani and US markets.
This visit has great symbolic value to signal Pakistan's new role, approach and stature. In a surgically visual world every micro move is conveying a message. The meeting has the capability of reversing the lose-win relationship that Pakistan has had with US to a more equitable and balanced one. Along with statecraft, the craft of body language will be on stage. Redeveloping the tone, approach, movements and optics in a more designed manner will help in resetting policy and relationship in the long run.
The writer can be reached at [email protected].
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