The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) has said that despite lower than the target wheat crop output in FY19, carryover stocks are sufficient to cover the domestic consumptive requirements of 25.8 million tons. According to a recent SBP report, there is some discrepancy in the production statistics of Ministry of National Food Security and Research (MNFSR) and Pakistan Economic Survey.
Data from Pakistan Economic Survey shows that the wheat production rose marginally by 0.5 percent to 25.2 million tons in FY19 as the government revised FY18 wheat output downwards by 0.4 million tons. However, according to the latest estimates by MNFSR, wheat production for FY19 had been recorded at 24.3 million tons which instead shows a contraction of 3.2 percent compared to revised production of 25.1 million tons in FY18.
The discrepancy between the estimates provided by PBS and MNFSR may be attributed to the PBS as it not counts the untimely rains and hailstorms at peak harvest time, the report said. THE SBP mentioned that the yield for wheat declined by 2.9 percent, while the area under wheat contracted by 0.4 percent. Second consecutive seasonal decline in wheat production was mainly due to three developments including delayed cane crushing, insufficient nutrient offtake and untimely and intermittent rains and hailstorm in the harvest period led to a portion of the crop being damaged, particularly in Southern Punjab.
Another reason for low yield is the usage of non-certified seeds in certain areas. Largely, losses in yield have been reported in districts such as Chakwal where desi varieties were planted. The varieties were inadequate resistance to weather changes, as opposed to new weather- and pest-resistant varieties.
In a climate-changing scenario, adoption of certified and climate resistant seeds is crucial in mitigating losses from unpredictable and erratic seasonal patterns. Furthermore, resilience of small farmers through climate smart adoption and insurance practices is also needed.
Initial yield of Punjab according to Federal Committee on Agriculture meeting in start of April was 2,951 kg per hectare while the latest loss adjusted yields are 2832 kg per hectare. Latest estimates were reported by MNFSR.
Recognizing this fact, the latest Punjab Crop Insurance Program aims to indemnify small landholders for yields losses, enhance productivity, and promote the adoption of climate smart practices such as new varieties of seeds. Under this program, Rabi 2018-19 wheat yield losses will be compensated for farmers covered under the program.
The position of wheat stocks held by provincial food authorities and PASSCO at end-March 2019 were 4.5 million tons, compared to 7.3 million tons in March 2018.
The SBP estimated that despite lower than target wheat output during the FY19, domestic carryover stocks are still sufficient to cover the domestic consumptive requirements of 25.8 million tons. This estimate is based on the 120-kg per person per annum requirement.
This year, the government had announced the target of 6.3 million tons for procurement, which was comparably higher than last year's target of 6.1 million tons and actual procurement of 5.9 million tons in FY18. However, the actual procurement was still not confirmed by majority of provincial authorities as of end-March 2019. Federal government has recently imposed a ban on export of wheat due to some increase in price of "Roti".
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