New York cocoa prices are forecast to end the year marginally above current levels as the market looks set to flip into deficit in the 2019/20 season, a Reuters poll of 10 analysts and traders showed on Thursday. ICE New York cocoa was expected to end the year at $2,515 a tonne, up 2% from Wednesday's close and 4% versus the start of the year, according to the median forecast of responses. Prices ended last year up 28%.
A small global deficit of 80,000 tonnes was forecast for the 2019/20 season against a surplus of 45,000 tonnes for 2018/19. In its May update, the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) saw a surplus for 2018/19 of 36,000 tonnes. ICE London cocoa was expected to end the year at 1,882 pounds a tonne, down 0.1% from Wednesday's close but up 5% versus the start of the year. Prices ended last year up 28%.
Respondents said key factors to watch were adverse weather in West Africa and moves by top producers Ivory Coast and Ghana to impose a fixed "living income differential" of $400 a tonne on all cocoa sales contracts for 2020/21.
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