Prime Minister Imran Khan did the unexpected. From the White House to Capitol Hill, he made the Americans treat Pakistan with respect and warmth. Pak-US relationship has been varying between cold and downright hostile. The famous "do more" US mantra changed to "What we [the US] can do more for Pakistan", including the offer by President Trump to mediate between India and Pakistan to resolve the Kashmir issue. The three-day visit was a tough going for Pakistan as in previous visits probing interviews by media and think tanks have caught our leaders off guard with their answers.
Why did this change happen? It was a combination of some shrewd preparatory work, the time for the original peace proposal of Imran Khan being accepted as the only solution, and some personality factors. The analysis shows three different path adoptions to the traditional avenues that lent weight to the Pakistani approach in the White House.
1. Show of US Strength - While there is a lot of criticism, especially by the opposition, on holding a convention of PTI workers in Capital Arena Washington DC just before the Trump meeting, it served a purpose. The purpose was not to just get the Pakistani community motivated but to show the importance and scale of Pakistani people living in DC. The turnout was historic as over 20,000 people turned up to jam-pack the arena. Trump is going into an election next year and Washington is an anti-Trump constituency. This crowd made Trump think of taking the PM, Pakistan and American Pakistanis more seriously. He remarked "It's my great honour to have the very popular and, by the way, great athlete - one of the greatest - but very popular Prime Minister of Pakistan". A clear statement referring to an over-packed event at Capital One Arena. Mike Pompeo met the Prime minister and his opening sentence was that 'Prime Minister you were received like a Rock Star in the Capital Arena yesterday'. This show was bigger than what Modi did in 2014 and considering Indian diaspora is many times bigger in America than Pakistan, this meant business to the US government.
2. Trade Not Aid - The second most striking factor which differentiated this meeting from the earlier ones was that no discussion on aid took place between the two leaders. In fact when the Prime Minister was questioned on aid in his media interviews, he said he had not come to seek aid. President Trump said very openly about the previous regimes misusing the American aid, "We were paying $1.3 billion as aid for many years but the problem was that Pakistan - it was before you [PM Imran] - was not doing anything for us".
Despite President Trump hinting at a resumption of aid, the Prime minister made it clear that Pakistan is not here to talk about aid but trade. The Prime Minister and his men met a round of investors and businessmen both of the US and the Pakistani diaspora and spent some quality time discussing how to make it possible for them to invest in Pakistan with minimum hassles. In his talk at USIP (United States Institute for Peace), the Prime Minister clearly stated that he considers aid as a curse that Pakistan needs to get out of and focus on mutual trade and investment.
3. The Peace Branding - Previous governments have gone to US and have either been used as "hired guns" in return of aid for wars around the region, or, blamed for misusing aid money and asked to "do more". Historically, Pakistan was blamed for housing and exporting terrorism. On this trip the Prime minister promoted Pakistan's image as a Peace ambassador. Why did this sell more on this trip is not just because US needs peace in Afghanistan, but because the Prime Minister has had a history of peace activism. The US knows his stance against drones and against war in Afghanistan even when the whole world was for it. Additionally, the recent peace efforts to avert Indo-Pak war and return the Indian pilot was highly appreciated by the international media. Thus when he talks of playing an active role for peace in Afghanistan it is taken seriously.
Post-visit imperatives are:
1. Lobbying in the right circles- Pakistan did not have a professional lobbying firm to put its case on a consistent basis in America for many years. This is a done practice by India and other countries who are influencing the main opinion makers in the Senate and Congress consistently. Recently, a lobbying firm has been hired. It is important the post-trip capitalization plan should be made with the firm on whom to approach and how the reach and the desired reactions have to be elicited and projected to carry on the image of a mutually beneficial relationship. Senator Lindsay Graham, who is a key person for Trump, was instrumental in arranging this meeting, should be consulted for more stakeholders in both Republican and Democrat parties who can support Pakistan in the Senate and the House of Representatives.
2. Clear moves for the Afghan Peace Process-The most important follow up that the Americans will be looking at will be Pakistan's facilitation of the Afghan talks and an early resolution. Prime Minister Imran Khan and Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi need to develop a comprehensive plan for engaging the Taliban and the Afghan government to create a consensus for the resolution. In this regard a careful table of initiatives and moves needs to be charted out that may also be implemented and projected in the right quarters of the White House.
3. Develop a Follow up meeting plan- It is important that another meeting with President Trump should be kept on calendar. There is a possibility that the two meet at the UN General Assembly in September. If that is confirmed early an outcome plan for the meeting should be designed. This will then help in working backward to fill up the steps needed to be taken to reach the designed.
This meeting was more about building trust and understanding. However, it is very important to capitalize on this breakthrough by clear and purposeful follow-ups on peace facilitation, trade development and security cooperation. The door has opened, but the follow-up steps to reach the center of the American power corridor, are the real test of mastering this complex yet fast changing horizon of international relations and foreign policy.
(The writer can be reached at [email protected])
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