The dollar rebounded and rose against the yen on Thursday as better-than-expected retail sales data in the United States helped offset fears that the US economy could be headed for a recession. Foreign exchange markets have remained relatively calm despite big moves in bond markets this week, where investors have piled into government debt in anticipation of a global growth slowdown.
But the safe-haven Japanese yen has strengthened as investors looked for safety. After earlier rising as European stock markets fell and investors flooded into safer assets, the yen then weakened. Data showing a bigger-than-expected rise in retail sales in July boosted the dollar. The latest turbulence in financial markets was triggered by the first inversion in the US Treasury yield curve for 12 years.
Such an inversion, where two-year yields trade higher than 10-year yields, has preceded previous economic recessions. "Market-related headlines this morning have been dominated by yield curve inversion and the recessionary implications that follow," Rabobank said in a note to clients. Sentiment was already fragile after economic data from China and Germany earlier in the week revealed the extent of the damage the China-US trade dispute is causing to the world economy.
The dollar rose 0.3% against the yen to 106.19. On Wednesday, the yen had rallied 0.8% against the greenback, its biggest daily gain in two weeks. The dollar index, which measures its value against a basket of six major currencies, erased its earlier losses and was last at 97.949, unchanged on the day.
The euro edged higher against the dollar, rising 0.1% to $1.1145.
The euro was also ahead against the Swiss franc, rising 0.2% to 1.0863 francs per euro. Elsewhere, Norway's crown weakened after its central bank, the Norges Bank, said its policy outlook was now more uncertain, raising doubts about whether it would raise rates later in 2019.
The central bank has been an outlier with its plans to hike rates while most policymakers turn more dovish in the face of worsening global growth. "We regard this as a signal that Norges Bank wants to gain flexibility in order to evaluate important incoming domestic data and global developments before deciding on the next possible rate hike," said SEB strategist Erica Blomgren Dalstø.
The crown was last down 0.1% against the euro at 10.019 crowns. The Australian dollar rose as much as 0.5% to $0.6791 after data showed the Australian economy had added a forecast-busting 41,100 new jobs in July.
However, reflecting the rising global economic risks, futures markets still imply an 84% chance of a quarter-point rate cut to 0.75% in October, with a cut by November seen as certain. Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Guy Debelle highlighted the risks from the trade war in a speech on Thursday, saying it could trigger a self-fulfilling global downturn. Sterling rallied to $1.2122, up 0.5% on the day, on better-than-expected retail sales data for July and hopes that a no-deal Brexit can be avoided.
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