The silence of the graveyard has descended over Indian-occupied Kashmir. Having illegally and unconstitutionally robbed Kashmir of its special status under Article 370 of the Indian Constitution and reversed the protections against outsider influx into the state under Article 35A, Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government has also bifurcated the state into Ladakh, to be ruled directly from New Delhi without any representative Assembly, and Jammu and Kashmir, currently under Governor's rule since the state Assembly stands dissolved since former chief minister Mehbooba Mufti's government was dismissed. (Incidentally, the Indian Constitution requires a resolution of the Kashmir Assembly before Articles 370 and 35A can be revoked. This will form part of the basis of the legal challenges to Modi's 'coup' before the Indian Supreme Court). The Ladakh decision has aroused the ire of China, which is in control of the Aksai Chin region of the historical state of Jammu and Kashmir and has ongoing border disputes in this and other areas along the border with India.
Meanwhile, a complete lockdown, curfew and communications embargo continues into its third week in Kashmir, punctuated from time to time by mass protests. Since Friday has traditionally served as a trigger for protests after Friday prayers, New Delhi has banned these public prayers too. The Indian opposition leaders who travelled to Srinagar to assess the situation and express solidarity with the people of Kashmir were turned away from the airport. While the armed resistance to India's oppression sputters along, increased exchanges along the Line of Control (LoC) point to the possibility of increased infiltration of Kashmiri freedom fighters into the state.
Pakistan's political leadership, government and opposition, seemed to rally to the Kashmiri cause after Modi's 'coup', but this show of amity and national solidarity did not last long, and the two sides were soon back at daggers drawn. Pakistan's diplomatic 'offensive' has yielded, to put it politely, mixed results. With long time friend China's help, Islamabad was able to have a closed-door consultation of the UN Security Council on the Kashmir crisis after half a century of neglect of the dispute. No communiqué followed the discussion. The respective ambassadors of China, India and Pakistan interpreted the outcome to the media along well known and oft trodden paths. China, in line with three members of the UN Security Council - the US, UK and Russia - repeated the desire of the big powers to decrease tensions between Pakistan and India, without going beyond their desire that Islamabad and New Delhi settle their differences through peaceful means (the threat of escalation to the nuclear threshold being uppermost in most minds). France at first retained an enigmatic silence and then 'dismissed' Pakistan's case by declaring the crisis India's internal matter. As for the Muslim world, the Organisation of Islamic Conference (OIC) came out with a 'diplomatic' statement. The UAE and Bahrain followed up with the bestowing of their highest civilian awards to Modi, and Saudi Arabia clinched lucrative investment deals with India. So much for Islamic/Muslim unity/solidarity.
The facts and ground realities can obviously not be ignored in summing up the results of Pakistan's diplomatic efforts so far nor in terms of the future. Pakistan stands relatively isolated in the world, thanks to years of acrimony with the US over Afghanistan. The latter has used its clout and influence worldwide, and even amongst our Gulf Arab friends to deny Pakistan any leverage. The world powers and the Gulf Arabs are licking their chops over India's emergence as a world power, with the economic and financial rewards expected now closer to low hanging fruit.
The Kashmiri armed resistance, reinforced by the unarmed intifada of citizens' protest, realistically remains the only hope for the oppressed people of Indian-occupied Kashmir. To avoid complications that could entangle it in the rows to be expected between Pakistan and India, the resistance may have to move towards a more self-reliant strategy. It could also in principle seek ties and mutual help from the other regional (eg the Nagas, Mizos) and revolutionary movements (the Naxalite Maoist armed struggles) ongoing in India. With due respect, and notwithstanding the pious wishes of the Pakistani establishment, Pakistani support for the Kashmiri struggle has not always worked to the latter's advantage. The armed uprising that broke out in 1989 after the rigged state elections of 1987 metamorphosed from a struggle for self-determination into a jihad when the secular (and then pro-independence for Kashmir) Jammu and Kashmir Liberation Front (JKLF), after bearing the brunt of Indian repression, was sidelined and eventually broke up in favour of jihadi groups allegedly supported by Pakistan. The JKLF subsequently abandoned the armed struggle in favour of peaceful, open struggle. Its leader, Yasin Malik, is in and out of jail on a regular basis. Needless to add, he is currently again under detention along with almost the entire political leadership of the Hurriyet Conference and even pro-India leaders like Mehbooba Mufti, Omar Abdullah, et al.
While the Kashmiris face a long and arduous struggle for freedom, events back home in Pakistan seem to be treading a familiar and well worn path. Prime Minister Imran Khan's decision to give CoAS General Qamar Javed Bajwa a three-year extension, no matter how it is dressed up as a necessity given the national security challenges, nevertheless is seen by most informed observers as an 'insurance policy' for the incumbents. Since it is by now abundantly clear that Imran Khan's Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaaf (PTI) enjoyed the establishment's backing during the elections and over the first year of the PTI government in office despite its floundering, incompetence and blunders, the decision ensures the government has the military's backing until one year before its term expires. Since the last year after that will likely be an election year (all other things being equal in the meantime), Imran Khan and company appear to be home and dry for this term at least. The only thing that could upset the apple cart and undo the best laid plans of mice and men may be the government's own inability (demonstrated with a vengeance already) to govern.
On that happy note, readers should wait and watch what promises to be a wild and unpredictable ride.
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