The Advisory Committee of Indus River System Authority (Irsa) on Tuesday forecast 15 per cent water shortage for Sindh and Punjab in Rabi season 2019-20, starting from October 1, 2019 to continue till March 31, 2020. The anticipated shortage figures were finalised at a meeting of the Irsa Advisory Committee convened to chalk out Rabi 2019-20 (October-March) anticipated water availability criteria. The meeting was presided over by Sher Zaman Khan, Chairman/ Member Irsa Balochistan.
Irsa Advisory Committee reviewed the Kharif 2019 data and observed that the actual Rim Station inflows of 104.82 MAF were only 1 per cent less than forecast volume of 106.7 MAF. The committee expressed satisfaction that the actual provincial withdrawals remained at 65.23 MAF against anticipated withdrawals of 66.80 MAF ie only 2 per cent less. The actual system losses were 14.10 MAF as compared to anticipation of 15.74 MAF and downstream releases were 11.65 MAF.
Irsa Advisory Committee discussed the recommendations of Irsa Technical Committee meeting held on September 25, 2019 and approved likely anticipated water availability of 24.15 MAF at rim station during Rabi 2019-20 of which Indus@ Tarbela will be 8.79 MAF, Kabul@ Nowshera, 4.62 MAF, Jhelum @ Mangla 5.27 MAF, Chenab @ Marala 4.47 MAF and eastern rivers contribution at 1.00 MAF.
Based on the rim station inflows plus available storage of 10.268 MAF minus the expected system of 2.38 MAF and minor unavoidable escapage downstream Kotri, the approved availability at respective canal heads is estimated to be 31.44 MAF of which the share of Punjab will be 16.93 MAF, Sindh, 12.78 MAF, KP (CRCB), 0.71 MAF and Balochistan , 1.03 MAF. Balochistan and KP are exempted from shortages.
The likely availability of 31.44 MAF was significantly higher than last year's availability of 24.76 MAF and considerably higher than 10-year average of 29.80 MAF. The Basin-wide shortage was approved at 15 per cent which was significantly less than previous Rabi (2018-19) actual shortage of 32 per cent.
It was agreed by the participants that the likely projected shortages were manageable and hopefully the cropping targets for Rabi 2019-20 would be achieved by applying efficient and best water management practices. It was also decided that remaining within the indicated likely shares the provinces would submit their withdrawal plans within 15 days.
The forum unanimously agreed that additional storages should be constructed wherever feasible on the rivers. If adequate storage capacity had been available, the surplus water of 11.65 MAF released downstream Kotri during Kharif 2019 could have been stored to eliminate the expected shortage of 15 per cent in Rabi 2019-20, after meeting with ecological and sea intrusion needs.
Regarding recommendation of Irsa technical committee to discuss studies relating to system losses, lag-times and cropping patterns due to climate change, Irsa Advisory Committee decided that Irsa may get the studies carried out within a year. The ToRs would be prepared in consultation with the provinces.
The following officials attended the meeting were, Engineer Raqib Khan, Member Irsa KP, Engineer Rao Irshad Ali Khan, Member Irsa Punjab, Engineer Syed Mazhar Ali Shah, Member Irsa Sindh, Saif Anjum, Secretary Irrigation Punjab, Engineer Aslam Ansari, Special Secretary (tech) Irrigation, Sindg, Dr Muhammad Anjum Ali, DGA(Ext) Agriculture Department, Punjab, Engineer Ismail Daudpota, Director (Reg) Irrigation Department, Balochistan, Engineer Riaz Ahmed Baloch, S E, Patfeeder Canal, Irrigation Department, Balochistan, Engineer Zahoor Muhammad, S E(H/Q) Director Hydrology Deptt, KP, Naseeb ur Rehman Kattak, Director OFEM, Agriculture Department, KP, Zulfiqar Hussain Shah, Director (WRMD), Wapda, Engineer, Masood Ahmad, Deputy Director, Irrigation Department, KP, M H Siddiqui, Consultant, Irrigation Department, Punjab and Khalid Idress Rana, Director( Operations), Irsa.
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