Political observers had warned of buyer’s remorse soon after the shocking Brexit vote in June 2016. (Read BR Research commentary: “Brexit: parochialism prevailed,” published June 27, 2016). It took two years for Dominic Cummings, the masterly messenger behind the “Vote Leave” campaign, to call Brexit a “train wreck”. Interested folks must watch his re-enacted journey from the Brexit architect to just another disillusioned Brit, performed ably by Benedict Cumberbatch, in a recent movie, “Brexit: The Uncivil War”.
With a couple of weeks left in the March 29 deadline for the UK to leave the EU with or without a “deal”, the Brexit saga continues to unfold, laying bare deep political division. The UK parliament has rejected the UK-EU withdrawal agreement, which was to serve as blueprint for UK’s future relationship with Europe. Rules for that relationship will be delineated in a three-year transition period after the UK exits.
Ironically, Brexiteers, who had campaigned to “take back control” from Brussels, hadn’t thought that Brexit might actually undermine the UK’s own sovereignty by subjecting Northern Ireland (which is part of the UK) to the EU’s single-market rules by keeping its soft border open with the Republic of Ireland. More ironic is the fact that this so-called “Irish backstop” is now the point of contention for Brexiteers, but not the economic uncertainty that the UK has and will continue to face for leaving the lucrative single market.
Unless the House of Commons empowers PM Theresa May, who has had to steer the country in these challenging times, to apply for an extension with the EU, the UK is hurtling towards a no-deal exit. A no-deal exit will be an economic and diplomatic catastrophe, a prospect which neither ‘leavers’ nor ‘remainers’ had entertained in the nearly three years since the UK was split down the middle.
As leaving the EU on March 29 is the default choice, the only option British MPs now have is to extend the Article 50, the EU-exit mechanism. That lands the ball in a frustrated EU’s half. The EU will have a tough time convincing all of its 27 member states to grant an extension. If granted an extension, the UK MPs have a number of options but none of them easy to agree on for a majority.
They could put the same deal for a vote again (highly unlikely, given the margin of defeat in the latest vote); they could negotiate a different deal with the EU (highly unlikely, as per EU officials); they could go for another referendum (unlikely as neither party demands it officially); or they could go for a general election (likely as the Labour party is now demanding it).
Whatever the choice, the UK will take time adjusting to its diminished stature wherever it ends up. For the rest of the world’s electorates, the Brexit referendum and The Donald’s election – 2016’s two political earthquakes – still offer a precious lesson: beware false prophets singing gospel of prosperity. Onus is also on the divided political elite to address the electorate’s anti-globalisation anger by taking measures that reduce inequality.
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