Observers of Indo-Pak bilateral are eagerly awaiting the make-up of next government in New Delhi. Two days from now, Indians will start voting in a mammoth, six-week-long elections. A lot is riding on that election’s outcome, not just for Indians and their hopes and dreams, but also for the future of multilateralism in this troubled region. South Asia may have had enough of Modi’s ‘muscular’ foreign policy; whether Indians feel the same way will become clear as final results are announced on May 23.
If Modi’s aggressive posture at home and abroad was a function of his party’s big majority after May 2014 elections, can a simple majority in the upcoming polls impart a more conciliatory tone? As far as opinion polls go – and opinion polls have a habit of missing the mark – some latest polls in India suggest a tightening of the race, with Modi’s NDA alliance barely crossing the cutoff of 272 seats in the lower house.
For Modi’s advisors, April should look better than March. Last month, polls were suggesting a hung parliament (read: “Where is the wave?” published March 12, 2019). Despite setbacks in its recent standoff with Pakistan, the BJP has made ‘national security’ one of the two main issues of their campaign, sprinkled, as usual, with a dose of Hindu nationalism, especially when it comes to the status of Kashmir.
The two-pronged messaging – defence and development – may be working for BJP. But if latest polls are any guide, it may, at best, return the BJP into the government with a simple majority. The economy is a mixed bag and farmers are not happy with pro-urban government policies. (For more on Modi’s economic era, read “Encore for Modi sarkar?” published January 16, 2019). In recent polls, issues of youth unemployment, farm distress and communal discord have consistently ranked among top voter concerns.
Recent polls depict slight change in the electoral share of myriad regional parties. It will most likely by the Congress’s UPA alliance that will do the damage to BJP’s NDA alliance. Congress and Co. are expected to recoup some 50 seats from the 336 seats that were won by the BJP’s alliance five years ago. The BJP yesterday released a highly populist manifesto, hoping to appeal to all and sundry to contain losses.
But even a simple majority may be anathema to Modi’s way of governing that large country. A bare majority may not help Modi’s chances of passing the promised, business-friendly legislation on issues like infrastructure development, land lease/auctions and labor reforms. A divided house may also restrain Modi’s aggressive foreign policy when it comes to South Asia. Congress may also feel energized and become vocal about protecting minorities and dissent in India. The BJP will have a tough five years.
If India’s diverse electorate doesn’t give one political party – BJP or Congress – a clear majority, it would be their message for the two parties to show compromise on socioeconomic issues and to show sensitivity to regional and cultural values. Are Modi and Co. capable of respecting such a mandate? Unlikely, but a sharply-reduced majority may chastise fringe elements that have become mainstream.
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