Whither cotton emergency?

For months, PTI’s economy team hinted at revolutionary steps for cotton revival on national forums including ECC and federal cabinet meetings. However, like most things in agriculture, PTI’s talk has proven seasonal, as action on the front appears to be wanting in budget proposals by both federal and provincial governments.

Let’s scan the official documents piecemeal. The federal government announced a Rs280 billion PM Agriculture Emergency Program for uplift of agriculture. Cotton as Pakistan’s largest cash crop must be the biggest beneficiary; one might hope (or argue, if you are an Imran-bakht). Except, that the program is spread over next five years, of which no more than 30 percent is budgeted to be spent in PTI’s second year in power.

While the budget speech mentioned that Rs45 billion will go towards improving yields of four major crops, look to Economic Survey for detail. Turns out, close to half of the budgeted amount shall go towards enhancement of wheat productivity, an off-season crop when farmers prefer to sow little else, and with a very poor output-input ratio of less than 0.25x.

This is followed by Rs11.4 billion for paddy, Rs10 billion for oilseeds, and nearly Rs4 billion for sugarcane. If the reader insists on searching for a silver lining, he/she may point out that oilseeds is another way of saying cottonseed – after all, cottonseed is the source of nearly three-fourths of domestically produced edible oil.

Except, fifty percent of the amount has been earmarked as subsidy for purchase of oilseed extraction machinery. While remainder will go towards making higher yield variety hybrid seeds available through local and MNC crop seed firms. Not much of a plan for staging a productivity revolution in lint-based fibre.

Maybe the provincial proposals carry more hope, considering crop incentivization is now mostly a provincial subject since devolution. Unlike federal documents, Punjab doesn’t disappoint by censoring mention of cotton altogether. The crop comes up thrice in the White Paper published alongside provincial budget. Once, for its poor performance last year, and twice in the context of fiscal receipts: namely, cotton fee, and cotton export duty.

So, what turned cotton from PTI’s favourite crop back in February to Lord Voldemort of budget proposals (he who must not be named). The public loves dichotomies and may wish to blame behind-the-scenes sugarcane kings in PTI for cotton’s conspicuous absence. But to caution fanboys of populist media, both cotton and cane have suffered equally during the ongoing year due to shortage of water, each witnessing contraction in output by nearly twenty percent. Moreover, cane cultivation is set to suffer again in the upcoming season due to lukewarm farmer interest due to payment delays.

Nevertheless, this is not to downplay the strength of cane growers as a pressure group. In sharp contrast, average cotton farmer usually has a smaller landholding and is much more exposed to vagaries of weather and pest attacks.

Pakistan last recorded a quantum jump in cotton yield back in 2000s, when GMO seeds were first introduced albeit through illegitimate channels. Policymakers are acutely aware that the second round of yield growth – one that brings Pakistani cotton at par with region – can only come once second-generation GM seeds are made available, adapted to local conditions. These, they hope, shall provide cotton crop immunity against ever-evolving pests that have long developed resistance against first generation seeds. Except, that is a long road (Read: “GMO: separating fact from fiction”, published on June 14, 2019; and “GMO Redux”, published on June 03, 2019)

Until that happens, allocating funds to cotton productivity may be putting more money into a black hole. Meanwhile, support infrastructure can be strengthened by investing in agronomics such as introducing water productivity techniques. To that end, the government has set aside Rs179 billion over next five years. Cotton’s conspicuous absence thus may not be such a bad idea after all.