Anatomy of cotton belt

Pakistan’s largest cash crop is grown in over half of the districts of the country, from Awaran in hinterlands of Balochistan to the high altitudes of Mardan valley. Yet close to 70 percent of its production is sourced from Punjab on average, of which almost 95 percent is contributed by just 14 districts of the province.

Identified as Punjab’s cotton belt, this contiguous region is defined as districts where cotton is the largest kharif crop by acreage, ahead of competing crops such as rice and sugarcane. Geographically, the region constitutes the heart of Indus basin, starting from Mianwali and Bhakkar near western border of the province, to Sahiwal and Bahawalnagar in south-east, and Rajanpur near southern border. (For a visualized map, look at “Cropping Patterns in Punjab, published July 10, 2019 in this section).

But look closely at annual figures coming out of Central Cotton Committee, and it is hard not to notice that the so-called cotton heartland encapsulates all the ailments faced by Pakistan’s cotton today. While the region may contribute highest acres to fibre crop cultivation, not one of these districts even come close to the average yield in Sindh.

Consider that Punjab’s highest yield in past five years was recorded in district Bahawalnagar at 896 kg per hectares, which is lower than Sindh’s average yield during same period by more than 100 kg per hectares. For other districts such as Bhakkar, five-year average is still lower than KP which has negligible share in terms of overall acreage.

Cotton’s other persistent woe – declining area under cultivation – is often seen independently of its poor and falling yield in Punjab’s cotton belt. However, it should be noted that not only Sindh’s share in total acreage has remained consistent over past five years at more than 20 percent; it has also been inching upwards in recent years.

In contrast, the correlation between falling yield and contraction of acreage in Punjab is very obvious. For the period under review, a fall in yield in one season was followed by a decline in cultivated area in the following year – indicating a lag relationship. That has resulted in cotton been replaced by other cash crops such as rice, cane and maize is only logical. Except most opinion makers appear to muddy the issue, by confusing cause and effect and arguing that better renumerative returns on other crops is forcing growers to switch away from cotton.

The trends coming out of Punjab’s cotton belt need a hard look by sector experts if Pakistan’s policymakers are serious about staging a revival of textile on the back of indigenously grown cotton. That needs identifying causes for decline in cotton yield in this region through research, and not just parroting sound bites reverberated by media anchors.